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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola

Barcelona

U S T T S

1–0

Full-time

Valencia

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,0

1,5

Scored

1,2

0,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 55%

83%

26%

Points per game

2,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 35%

22%

48%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,91 xG 0,79

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Valencia 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	23	19	2	2	+37	+4.8	59
2	Real Madrid	23	16	4	3	+29	+9.3	52
3	Ath Madrid	24	13	6	5	+19	+4.4	45
4	Sociedad	24	13	5	6	+9	+1.3	44
5	Betis	23	12	4	7	+7	+5.0	40
6	Villarreal	24	11	4	9	+5	+1.7	37
7	Vallecano	23	9	7	7	+4	+0.8	34
8	Osasuna	23	9	6	8	-1	-5.6	33
9	Ath Bilbao	23	9	5	9	+7	-0.5	32
10	Mallorca	24	9	4	11	-4	-3.8	31
11	Girona	24	8	6	10	+0	-1.3	30
12	Espanol	24	6	9	9	-6	+0.4	27
13	Celta	23	7	6	10	-8	+0.4	27
14	Valladolid	24	8	3	13	-16	-4.7	27
15	Cadiz	24	6	8	10	-17	-1.1	26
16	Getafe	24	6	7	11	-9	-1.4	25
17	Sevilla	24	6	7	11	-12	+2.0	25
18	Almeria	24	7	4	13	-14	-2.2	25
19	Valencia	23	6	5	12	+0	-3.0	23
20	Elche	24	2	6	16	-30	-6.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	9	2	0	+23	+3.0	29
2	Real Madrid	11	7	4	0	+15	+7.9	25
3	Villarreal	11	7	1	3	+7	+2.7	22
4	Almeria	13	7	1	5	+3	-0.7	22
5	Ath Madrid	12	6	3	3	+11	+4.5	21
6	Girona	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.5	21
7	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.7	20
8	Betis	11	6	2	3	+6	+1.7	20
9	Mallorca	12	6	2	4	+3	+0.3	20
10	Valladolid	12	6	2	4	+1	+1.3	20
11	Sociedad	12	5	4	3	+1	+0.9	19
12	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+4	-0.1	18
13	Osasuna	11	6	0	5	+1	-2.2	18
14	Valencia	12	5	2	5	+7	+0.6	17
15	Cadiz	12	4	5	3	-3	+2.1	17
16	Celta	12	4	4	4	+2	+1.7	16
17	Getafe	13	4	4	5	-2	-1.2	16
18	Sevilla	12	4	3	5	-1	+7.1	15
19	Espanol	12	3	4	5	-4	+2.5	13
20	Elche	12	1	3	8	-10	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	10	0	2	+14	+1.8	30
2	Real Madrid	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.4	27
3	Sociedad	12	8	1	3	+8	+0.4	25
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.0	24
5	Betis	12	6	2	4	+1	+3.3	20
6	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
7	Villarreal	13	4	3	6	-2	-1.0	15
8	Osasuna	12	3	6	3	-2	-3.4	15
9	Espanol	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.1	14
10	Ath Bilbao	11	3	3	5	-1	-1.2	12
11	Mallorca	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.1	11
12	Celta	11	3	2	6	-10	-1.4	11
13	Sevilla	12	2	4	6	-11	-5.1	10
14	Girona	12	2	3	7	-6	-3.9	9
15	Getafe	11	2	3	6	-7	-0.2	9
16	Cadiz	12	2	3	7	-14	-3.2	9
17	Valladolid	12	2	1	9	-17	-6.0	7
18	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-7	-3.6	6
19	Elche	12	1	3	8	-20	-6.1	6
20	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-1.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.