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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Nijmegen

S T T T T

1–5

Full-time

Ajax

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,7

This season — Eredivisie · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 48%

24%

72%

Points per game

1,0

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 47%

45%

48%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

0,9

2,1

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

30% Possession 70%

14 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 11

4 Blocked shots 0

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 15. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	29	23	3	3	+58	72
2	Ajax	29	21	6	2	+43	69
3	PSV Eindhoven	29	19	8	2	+36	65
4	Vitesse	30	14	6	10	+12	48
5	Utrecht	26	13	7	6	+12	46
6	Twente	29	11	9	9	+2	42
7	Heerenveen	28	11	6	11	+8	39
8	AZ Alkmaar	26	9	11	6	+5	38
9	Heracles	29	9	7	13	-7	34
10	Willem II	29	8	9	12	-8	33
11	Zwolle	29	8	7	14	-21	31
12	Groningen	27	6	11	10	-4	29
13	Sparta Rotterdam	30	7	7	16	-19	28
14	Excelsior	30	6	10	14	-19	28
15	Nijmegen	29	7	7	15	-22	28
16	Den Haag	29	8	4	17	-23	28
17	Roda	29	5	11	13	-24	26
18	Go Ahead Eagles	29	6	5	18	-29	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	15	13	2	0	+41	41
2	Ajax	15	12	2	1	+28	38
3	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	3	1	+17	33
4	Vitesse	15	8	2	5	+9	26
5	Heerenveen	14	7	4	3	+11	25
6	Twente	15	7	4	4	+5	25
7	Heracles	15	7	3	5	+8	24
8	Utrecht	12	6	3	3	+6	21
9	AZ Alkmaar	13	4	7	2	+6	19
10	Sparta Rotterdam	15	5	4	6	+0	19
11	Nijmegen	14	5	4	5	-1	19
12	Excelsior	15	4	5	6	-2	17
13	Den Haag	14	5	2	7	-3	17
14	Roda	15	4	5	6	-4	17
15	Willem II	15	4	5	6	-5	17
16	Groningen	14	3	7	4	-5	16
17	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-9	16
18	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	1	9	-9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	9	5	1	+19	32
2	Feyenoord	14	10	1	3	+17	31
3	Ajax	14	9	4	1	+15	31
4	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+6	25
5	Vitesse	15	6	4	5	+3	22
6	AZ Alkmaar	13	5	4	4	-1	19
7	Twente	14	4	5	5	-3	17
8	Willem II	14	4	4	6	-3	16
9	Zwolle	15	4	3	8	-12	15
10	Heerenveen	14	4	2	8	-3	14
11	Groningen	13	3	4	6	+1	13
12	Excelsior	15	2	5	8	-17	11
13	Den Haag	15	3	2	10	-20	11
14	Heracles	14	2	4	8	-15	10
15	Go Ahead Eagles	15	2	4	9	-20	10
16	Sparta Rotterdam	15	2	3	10	-19	9
17	Roda	14	1	6	7	-20	9
18	Nijmegen	15	2	3	10	-21	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.