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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Ajax

S S U S U

5–0

Full-time

Nijmegen

S T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

58%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

69% Possession 31%

24 Shots 8

13 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

9 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Nijmegen 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	12	9	2	1	+21	29
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+15	27
3	PSV Eindhoven	13	7	5	1	+14	26
4	Heerenveen	12	6	4	2	+11	22
5	Twente	12	5	4	3	+4	19
6	AZ Alkmaar	11	4	6	1	+6	18
7	Vitesse	13	4	4	5	+1	16
8	Sparta Rotterdam	13	4	4	5	+0	16
9	Utrecht	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Heracles	13	3	6	4	-3	15
11	Den Haag	13	4	2	7	-7	14
12	Excelsior	13	4	1	8	-8	13
13	Zwolle	12	3	4	5	-9	13
14	Nijmegen	12	2	6	4	-7	12
15	Willem II	13	2	5	6	-9	11
16	Go Ahead Eagles	13	3	2	8	-11	11
17	Groningen	12	2	4	6	-8	10
18	Roda	13	1	7	5	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	+12	14
2	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Twente	6	3	2	1	+5	11
4	Heerenveen	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	AZ Alkmaar	6	2	4	0	+4	10
7	Utrecht	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	PSV Eindhoven	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Excelsior	7	3	0	4	-1	9
11	Heracles	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Zwolle	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Vitesse	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Den Haag	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Nijmegen	7	1	4	2	-4	7
16	Willem II	7	1	3	3	-5	6
17	Groningen	6	1	2	3	-8	5
18	Roda	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	2	0	+13	17
2	Feyenoord	6	5	0	1	+9	15
3	Ajax	6	4	2	0	+9	14
4	Heerenveen	7	3	2	2	+6	11
5	Vitesse	7	2	3	2	+2	9
6	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Twente	6	2	2	2	-1	8
8	Heracles	7	1	4	2	-3	7
9	Den Haag	7	2	1	4	-5	7
10	Roda	7	1	4	2	-6	7
11	Groningen	6	1	2	3	+0	5
12	Utrecht	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	-3	5
14	Zwolle	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Nijmegen	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Willem II	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Excelsior	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Go Ahead Eagles	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.