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Serie B

Referee: D Paterna

Sudtirol

S U U U S

2–1

Full-time

Perugia

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sudtirol Perugia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

This season — Serie B · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 36%

41%

30%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

30%

41%

Both score Ø 43%

48%

37%

Average goals

2,1

2,3

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

17 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sudtirol 4. · Perugia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	27	18	4	5	+27	58
2	Genoa	27	13	9	5	+12	48
3	Bari	27	12	10	5	+17	46
4	Sudtirol	27	11	11	5	+3	44
5	Pisa	28	10	12	6	+12	42
6	Reggina	28	13	3	12	+8	42
7	Parma	28	11	7	10	+4	40
8	Cagliari	27	9	11	7	+2	38
9	Palermo	28	9	11	8	-2	38
10	Ascoli	27	9	9	9	-1	36
11	Modena	27	10	5	12	+1	35
12	Ternana	27	9	8	10	-7	35
13	Cittadella	27	8	10	9	-8	34
14	Como	27	7	11	9	-4	32
15	Perugia	27	8	6	13	-3	30
16	Venezia	27	7	8	12	-6	29
17	Benevento	27	6	9	12	-8	27
18	Brescia	27	6	8	13	-18	26
19	Cosenza	27	6	8	13	-20	26
20	Spal	27	5	10	12	-9	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	13	10	2	1	+17	32
2	Cagliari	14	8	4	2	+6	28
3	Genoa	13	6	6	1	+9	24
4	Reggina	14	7	2	5	+8	23
5	Palermo	14	6	5	3	+4	23
6	Pisa	14	6	4	4	+8	22
7	Parma	14	7	1	6	+5	22
8	Ternana	13	6	4	3	+3	22
9	Bari	14	5	6	3	+8	21
10	Cosenza	14	5	5	4	+1	20
11	Sudtirol	14	4	8	2	+1	20
12	Modena	13	5	4	4	+6	19
13	Como	13	5	4	4	+3	19
14	Perugia	13	5	4	4	+3	19
15	Cittadella	13	4	6	3	-1	18
16	Brescia	14	4	4	6	-4	16
17	Ascoli	13	3	5	5	-3	14
18	Spal	14	3	4	7	-2	13
19	Venezia	14	3	4	7	-6	13
20	Benevento	14	3	3	8	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	14	8	2	4	+10	26
2	Bari	13	7	4	2	+9	25
3	Genoa	14	7	3	4	+3	24
4	Sudtirol	13	7	3	3	+2	24
5	Ascoli	14	6	4	4	+2	22
6	Pisa	14	4	8	2	+4	20
7	Reggina	14	6	1	7	+0	19
8	Parma	14	4	6	4	-1	18
9	Venezia	13	4	4	5	+0	16
10	Modena	14	5	1	8	-5	16
11	Cittadella	14	4	4	6	-7	16
12	Benevento	13	3	6	4	+0	15
13	Palermo	14	3	6	5	-6	15
14	Como	14	2	7	5	-7	13
15	Ternana	14	3	4	7	-10	13
16	Spal	13	2	6	5	-7	12
17	Perugia	14	3	2	9	-6	11
18	Cagliari	13	1	7	5	-4	10
19	Brescia	13	2	4	7	-14	10
20	Cosenza	13	1	3	9	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.