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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Man City

U S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Wolves

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Wolves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

2,2

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 44%

53%

35%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

65%

71%

Both score Ø 61%

59%

62%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,9

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,65 xG 0,44

64% Possession 36%

9 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 4. · Wolves 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	34	25	7	2	+48	+46.8	82
2	Arsenal	34	18	13	3	+34	+25.3	67
3	Newcastle	34	19	5	10	+21	+15.7	62
4	Man City	34	18	7	9	+23	+16.5	61
5	Chelsea	34	17	9	8	+19	+19.5	60
6	Nott'm Forest	34	18	6	10	+12	-2.8	60
7	Aston Villa	34	16	9	9	+5	+8.1	57
8	Fulham	34	14	9	11	+4	+5.3	51
9	Brighton	34	13	12	9	+1	+4.6	51
10	Bournemouth	34	13	11	10	+12	+15.2	50
11	Brentford	34	14	7	13	+8	+0.0	49
12	Crystal Palace	34	11	12	11	-4	+6.9	45
13	Wolves	34	12	5	17	-10	-12.6	41
14	Man United	34	10	9	15	-8	-3.2	39
15	Everton	34	8	14	12	-7	-5.7	38
16	Tottenham	34	11	4	19	+6	-0.9	37
17	West Ham	34	9	9	16	-19	-11.3	36
18	Ipswich	34	4	9	21	-41	-40.1	21
19	Leicester	34	4	6	24	-49	-39.3	18
20	Southampton	34	2	5	27	-55	-48.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	14	2	1	+26	+22.7	44
2	Arsenal	17	10	6	1	+18	+16.4	36
3	Man City	17	11	3	3	+17	+14.8	36
4	Newcastle	17	11	2	4	+19	+9.9	35
5	Chelsea	17	10	5	2	+14	+16.4	35
6	Aston Villa	17	9	7	1	+11	+14.5	34
7	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+11	+3.2	31
8	Brentford	17	8	4	5	+5	+4.4	28
9	Brighton	17	7	7	3	+3	+6.7	28
10	Fulham	17	7	5	5	+1	+0.7	26
11	Bournemouth	17	7	4	6	+6	+7.9	25
12	Tottenham	17	6	3	8	+5	+2.2	21
13	Crystal Palace	17	5	6	6	-4	+6.1	21
14	Man United	17	6	3	8	-5	+0.9	21
15	Everton	17	4	8	5	+1	-0.5	20
16	Wolves	17	6	2	9	-3	-4.8	20
17	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-10	-8.4	19
18	Leicester	17	2	3	12	-23	-16.7	9
19	Ipswich	17	1	4	12	-27	-16.3	7
20	Southampton	17	1	2	14	-33	-27.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+22	+24.1	38
2	Arsenal	17	8	7	2	+16	+8.9	31
3	Nott'm Forest	17	9	2	6	+1	-5.9	29
4	Newcastle	17	8	3	6	+2	+5.8	27
5	Bournemouth	17	6	7	4	+6	+7.2	25
6	Man City	17	7	4	6	+6	+1.7	25
7	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	+3.1	25
8	Fulham	17	7	4	6	+3	+4.6	25
9	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	+0	+0.8	24
10	Brighton	17	6	5	6	-2	-2.1	23
11	Aston Villa	17	7	2	8	-6	-6.4	23
12	Brentford	17	6	3	8	+3	-4.3	21
13	Wolves	17	6	3	8	-7	-7.8	21
14	Man United	17	4	6	7	-3	-4.1	18
15	Everton	17	4	6	7	-8	-5.3	18
16	West Ham	17	4	5	8	-9	-2.9	17
17	Tottenham	17	5	1	11	+1	-3.1	16
18	Ipswich	17	3	5	9	-14	-23.8	14
19	Leicester	17	2	3	12	-26	-22.7	9
20	Southampton	17	1	3	13	-22	-20.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.