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Premier League
Referee: D England
Brighton
U T T U T
3–2
Full-time
West Ham
U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton West Ham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,2
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
2,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 32%
36%
27%
Points per game
1,5
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
73%
48%
Both score Ø 66%
70%
61%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,6
1,1
Conceded
1,6
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,31 xG 1,27
53% Possession 47%
16 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 1
4 Offside 3
7 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brighton 10. · West Ham 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Liverpool 33 24 7 2 +44 +44.9 79
2 Arsenal 34 18 13 3 +34 +25.3 67
3 Man City 34 18 7 9 +23 +16.5 61
4 Chelsea 34 17 9 8 +19 +19.5 60
5 Nott'm Forest 33 18 6 9 +14 -2.4 60
6 Newcastle 33 18 5 10 +18 +13.0 59
7 Aston Villa 34 16 9 9 +5 +8.1 57
8 Bournemouth 33 13 10 10 +12 +17.2 49
9 Fulham 33 13 9 11 +3 +3.5 48
10 Brighton 33 12 12 9 +0 +4.6 48
11 Brentford 33 13 7 13 +6 -0.4 46
12 Crystal Palace 34 11 12 11 -4 +6.9 45
13 Everton 34 8 14 12 -7 -5.7 38
14 Man United 33 10 8 15 -8 -5.2 38
15 Wolves 33 11 5 17 -13 -13.5 38
16 Tottenham 33 11 4 18 +10 +0.9 37
17 West Ham 33 9 9 15 -18 -11.3 36
18 Ipswich 33 4 9 20 -38 -37.4 21
19 Leicester 33 4 6 23 -46 -38.5 18
20 Southampton 33 2 5 26 -54 -46.2 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Brighton West Ham
1–0 Y. Ayari
J. Hinshelwood
13′
29′
🟨 Konstantinos Mavropanos
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 N. Füllkrug
↦ J. Ward-Prowse
48′
M. Kudus 1–1
J. Bowen
Y. Minteh 🔁
↦ S. March
62′
K. Mitoma 🔁
↦ S. Adingra
62′
Jack Hinshelwood 🟨
80′
D. Gómez 🔁
↦ J. Hinshelwood
82′
B. Gruda 🔁
↦ M. ORiley
82′
83′
T. Souček 1–2
J. Bowen
86′
🔁 V. Coufal
↦ Emerson
2–2 K. Mitoma
B. Gruda
89′
3–2 C. Baleba
B. Gruda
92′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Brighton

4-2-3-1
1 B. Verbruggen G
27 M. Wieffer D
5 L. Dunk D
20 C. Baleba D
30 P. Estupiñán D
26 Y. Ayari M
41 J. Hinshelwood M
7 S. March M
33 M. O'Riley M
11 S. Adingra M
18 D. Welbeck F
Bench (9)
17 Y. Minteh
22 K. Mitoma
25 D. Gómez
8 B. Gruda
34 J. Veltman
2 T. Lamptey
16 E. Cashin
23 J. Steele
60 C. Tasker

Coach: F. Hürzeler

West Ham

3-5-2
23 A. Areola G
25 J. Todibo D
15 K. Mavropanos D
26 M. Kilman D
29 A. Wan-Bissaka M
10 Lucas Paquetá M
8 J. Ward-Prowse M
28 T. Souček M
33 Emerson M
14 M. Kudus F
20 J. Bowen F
Bench (9)
11 N. Füllkrug
5 V. Coufal
24 G. Rodríguez
1 Ł. Fabiański
39 A. Irving
17 Luis Guilherme
18 D. Ings
4 Carlos Soler
3 A. Cresswell

Coach: G. Potter

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,67
U
4,14
B
4,76
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,67
U2,5
2,21
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D England · 172 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.