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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Montpellier

T S T T T

0–3

Full-time

Toulouse

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

3,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 13%

13%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

88%

38%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

4,3

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

3,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-2,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

0,21 xG 1,88

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 18. · Toulouse 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+17	+14.3	20
2	Monaco	8	6	2	0	+10	+10.0	20
3	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+13	+1.0	17
4	Lille	9	5	2	2	+7	+4.0	17
5	Lens	9	3	5	1	+3	+4.2	14
6	Lyon	9	4	2	3	+2	+4.3	14
7	Reims	9	4	2	3	+2	-4.2	14
8	Brest	9	4	1	4	-2	-5.5	13
9	Rennes	9	3	2	4	+1	+1.0	11
10	Nice	8	2	4	2	+8	+4.2	10
11	Nantes	8	2	4	2	+1	-1.5	10
12	Strasbourg	8	2	4	2	+0	+0.3	10
13	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-5	-3.8	10
14	Angers	9	1	4	4	-6	-4.0	7
15	St Etienne	9	2	1	6	-16	-10.9	7
16	Toulouse	8	1	3	4	-4	+5.1	6
17	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-13	-8.0	6
18	Montpellier	8	1	1	6	-18	-10.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.2	12
2	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+4	+5.1	11
3	Rennes	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.1	10
4	Brest	5	3	1	1	+4	-0.5	10
5	Auxerre	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.9	9
6	Strasbourg	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.0	8
7	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
8	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.1	7
9	Reims	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
10	St Etienne	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
11	Nice	3	1	2	0	+8	+3.8	5
12	Marseille	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
13	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
14	Lens	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.8	5
15	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.6	5
16	Angers	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.7	4
17	Montpellier	4	1	1	2	-6	-1.5	4
18	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	0	1	+11	+0.0	12
2	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
3	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
4	Lens	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.4	9
5	Paris SG	4	2	2	0	+5	+6.1	8
6	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.4	7
7	Lyon	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.2	7
8	Nice	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.5	5
9	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.3	5
10	Angers	4	0	3	1	-2	-2.3	3
11	Le Havre	5	1	0	4	-5	-2.1	3
12	Brest	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
13	Strasbourg	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
14	Toulouse	3	0	1	2	-3	+1.5	1
15	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.1	1
16	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.7	1
17	St Etienne	5	0	1	4	-15	-11.1	1
18	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-12	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.