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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Montpellier

T U U S T

3–0

Full-time

Toulouse

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/9 matches

Win Ø 24%

25%

22%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

63%

44%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,07 xG 1,24

39% Possession 61%

19 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 15. · Toulouse 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	10	6	4	0	+7	+7.0	22
2	Paris SG	10	6	3	1	+14	+12.6	21
3	Monaco	9	6	2	1	+11	+6.3	20
4	Reims	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.9	17
5	Lille	9	4	3	2	+2	+4.3	15
6	Brest	10	4	3	3	+0	+1.1	15
7	Nantes	10	4	2	4	-3	-7.4	14
8	Marseille	9	3	3	3	+0	+7.4	12
9	Lens	10	3	3	4	-1	+3.5	12
10	Rennes	9	2	5	2	+3	+4.6	11
11	Toulouse	9	2	5	2	+1	-7.8	11
12	Le Havre	9	2	4	3	-2	-5.2	10
13	Lorient	10	2	4	4	-5	-7.1	10
14	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	-6	-3.0	10
15	Montpellier	8	2	3	3	+1	+1.9	9
16	Metz	9	2	2	5	-8	-8.1	8
17	Clermont	9	1	2	6	-7	-6.3	5
18	Lyon	9	0	3	6	-11	-7.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+7	+2.8	12
2	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+8	+4.8	10
3	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+6	+5.1	10
4	Lille	4	3	0	1	+3	+3.8	9
5	Nice	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.1	9
6	Reims	5	3	0	2	+2	+4.3	9
7	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.5	8
8	Lens	5	2	2	1	+4	+6.4	8
9	Nantes	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.7	8
10	Lorient	5	2	2	1	+1	-3.6	8
11	Brest	5	2	2	1	+1	+5.0	8
12	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
13	Le Havre	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.5	7
14	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+3	-1.9	6
15	Metz	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.7	2
17	Lyon	5	0	2	3	-7	-3.1	2
18	Clermont	5	0	1	4	-5	-4.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	5	4	1	0	+4	+2.8	13
2	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
3	Monaco	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.5	8
4	Reims	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.4	8
5	Montpellier	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.2	7
6	Brest	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.9	7
7	Lille	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.5	6
8	Metz	5	2	0	3	-6	-6.8	6
9	Nantes	5	2	0	3	-6	-4.7	6
10	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.9	5
11	Clermont	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
12	Lens	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.9	4
13	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.0	3
14	Le Havre	4	0	3	1	-3	-6.7	3
15	Strasbourg	4	1	0	3	-7	-5.0	3
16	Lorient	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.5	2
17	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.