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Ligue 1

Referee: A Delerue

Toulouse

T U T S U

0–1

Full-time

Paris SG

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+2,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/28 matches

Win Ø 57%

24%

89%

Points per game

1,1

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

48%

79%

Both score Ø 54%

62%

46%

Average goals

2,4

3,6

Scored

1,0

3,1

Conceded

1,5

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

34% Possession 66%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 14. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	25	2	1	+70	77
2	Lille	30	18	6	6	+22	60
3	Lyon	30	16	8	6	+16	56
4	Marseille	30	14	6	10	+7	48
5	St Etienne	29	13	7	9	+7	46
6	Reims	29	11	13	5	+4	46
7	Nice	30	12	8	10	-7	44
8	Montpellier	29	10	12	7	+6	42
9	Rennes	29	11	8	10	+2	41
10	Strasbourg	29	9	12	8	+10	39
11	Angers	30	8	13	9	+0	37
12	Nimes	28	10	7	11	-2	37
13	Bordeaux	30	8	11	11	-3	35
14	Toulouse	29	7	11	11	-15	32
15	Nantes	29	8	7	14	-5	31
16	Monaco	30	7	9	14	-15	30
17	Amiens	30	8	6	16	-19	30
18	Caen	30	4	11	15	-20	23
19	Guingamp	29	5	7	17	-32	22
20	Dijon	30	5	6	19	-26	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	15	0	0	+47	45
2	Lyon	15	10	3	2	+16	33
3	Marseille	15	9	4	2	+16	31
4	Lille	15	9	4	2	+16	31
5	St Etienne	14	9	2	3	+12	29
6	Reims	15	7	6	2	+6	27
7	Rennes	15	7	4	4	+7	25
8	Bordeaux	15	6	6	3	+4	24
9	Nice	14	7	3	4	+0	24
10	Montpellier	14	5	6	3	+7	21
11	Strasbourg	14	5	6	3	+6	21
12	Angers	15	5	6	4	+3	21
13	Nimes	14	5	5	4	+5	20
14	Amiens	15	6	2	7	-3	20
15	Nantes	14	5	4	5	+6	19
16	Toulouse	14	3	7	4	-3	16
17	Monaco	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Guingamp	15	3	4	8	-9	13
19	Dijon	15	3	3	9	-14	12
20	Caen	15	2	5	8	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	2	1	+23	32
2	Lille	15	9	2	4	+6	29
3	Lyon	15	6	5	4	+0	23
4	Montpellier	15	5	6	4	-1	21
5	Nice	16	5	5	6	-7	20
6	Reims	14	4	7	3	-2	19
7	Strasbourg	15	4	6	5	+4	18
8	St Etienne	15	4	5	6	-5	17
9	Nimes	14	5	2	7	-7	17
10	Marseille	15	5	2	8	-9	17
11	Angers	15	3	7	5	-3	16
12	Monaco	14	4	4	6	-4	16
13	Rennes	14	4	4	6	-5	16
14	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-12	16
15	Caen	15	2	6	7	-9	12
16	Nantes	15	3	3	9	-11	12
17	Bordeaux	15	2	5	8	-7	11
18	Amiens	15	2	4	9	-16	10
19	Dijon	15	2	3	10	-12	9
20	Guingamp	14	2	3	9	-23	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.