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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Paris SG

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

3,5

0,5

Conceded

0,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+3,3

-1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 62%

100%

23%

Points per game

3,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

92%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

54%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

3,5

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+2,9

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

73% Possession 27%

9 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 6

4 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Toulouse 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	13	0	0	+38	39
2	Lyon	14	8	3	3	+8	27
3	Lille	13	8	2	3	+11	26
4	Montpellier	13	7	4	2	+12	25
5	St Etienne	14	6	5	3	+1	23
6	Marseille	13	7	1	5	+3	22
7	Nice	13	6	2	5	-4	20
8	Strasbourg	13	4	6	3	+4	18
9	Reims	13	4	5	4	-4	17
10	Nantes	13	4	4	5	+2	16
11	Bordeaux	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Rennes	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Angers	13	4	3	6	-2	15
14	Nimes	13	3	5	5	-2	14
15	Toulouse	13	3	5	5	-10	14
16	Amiens	13	4	1	8	-8	13
17	Caen	13	2	6	5	-5	12
18	Dijon	13	3	2	8	-11	11
19	Monaco	13	1	4	8	-10	7
20	Guingamp	13	1	4	8	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	7	0	0	+23	21
2	Lille	7	6	1	0	+12	19
3	Lyon	8	5	2	1	+8	17
4	St Etienne	7	5	2	0	+7	17
5	Marseille	7	5	1	1	+11	16
6	Montpellier	7	4	2	1	+8	14
7	Strasbourg	6	3	2	1	+5	11
8	Bordeaux	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Amiens	6	3	0	3	+2	9
10	Reims	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+6	8
12	Angers	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Rennes	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Toulouse	7	2	2	3	-3	8
15	Caen	6	1	4	1	+0	7
16	Nimes	6	1	3	2	-1	6
17	Nice	6	2	0	4	-7	6
18	Monaco	7	0	3	4	-7	3
19	Dijon	6	1	0	5	-10	3
20	Guingamp	6	0	2	4	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	6	0	0	+15	18
2	Nice	7	4	2	1	+3	14
3	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Lyon	6	3	1	2	+0	10
5	Nimes	7	2	2	3	-1	8
6	Dijon	7	2	2	3	-1	8
7	Rennes	7	2	2	3	-2	8
8	Nantes	7	2	2	3	-4	8
9	Reims	7	2	2	3	-5	8
10	Angers	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Strasbourg	7	1	4	2	-1	7
12	Lille	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	St Etienne	7	1	3	3	-6	6
14	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-7	6
15	Marseille	6	2	0	4	-8	6
16	Bordeaux	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Caen	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Guingamp	7	1	2	4	-12	5
19	Monaco	6	1	1	4	-3	4
20	Amiens	7	1	1	5	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.