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Ligue 1

Referee: M Lesage

Marseille

U U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Nantes

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/11 matches

Win Ø 42%

56%

27%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

22%

55%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

64%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 7. · Nantes 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	0	3	+22	24
2	Lille	11	6	4	1	+14	22
3	Lyon	11	5	5	1	+8	20
4	Monaco	11	6	2	3	+4	20
5	Montpellier	11	6	2	3	+4	20
6	Rennes	12	5	4	3	+3	19
7	Marseille	9	5	3	1	+4	18
8	Lens	10	5	3	2	+1	18
9	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17
10	Metz	11	4	4	3	+3	16
11	Angers	11	5	1	5	-6	16
12	Bordeaux	11	4	3	4	-1	15
13	Brest	11	5	0	6	-4	15
14	Nantes	11	3	4	4	-2	13
15	Nimes	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	St Etienne	11	3	1	7	-8	10
17	Reims	11	2	3	6	-3	9
18	Lorient	11	2	2	7	-9	8
19	Strasbourg	12	2	1	9	-10	7
20	Dijon	11	0	4	7	-15	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	6	4	2	0	+11	14
2	Monaco	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Paris SG	5	4	0	1	+12	12
4	Brest	6	4	0	2	+2	12
5	Montpellier	6	4	0	2	+2	12
6	Lyon	5	3	2	0	+7	11
7	Lens	5	3	2	0	+4	11
8	Metz	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Rennes	6	3	1	2	+1	10
10	Bordeaux	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	Nantes	5	2	2	1	+0	8
12	Nice	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Angers	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	St Etienne	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Marseille	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Lorient	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Strasbourg	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Nimes	6	1	1	4	-7	4
19	Dijon	6	0	3	3	-4	3
20	Reims	5	1	0	4	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	1	0	+4	13
2	Paris SG	6	4	0	2	+10	12
3	Nice	5	3	1	1	+5	10
4	Rennes	6	2	3	1	+2	9
5	Lyon	6	2	3	1	+1	9
6	Angers	5	3	0	2	-2	9
7	Lille	5	2	2	1	+3	8
8	Montpellier	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Nimes	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Lens	5	2	1	2	-3	7
11	Reims	6	1	3	2	+2	6
12	Metz	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Monaco	5	2	0	3	-3	6
14	Bordeaux	5	2	0	3	-4	6
15	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	St Etienne	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Lorient	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Strasbourg	6	1	0	5	-4	3
19	Brest	5	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Dijon	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.