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Premier League

Referee: L Mason

Man City

S U S U T

5–0

Full-time

Burnley

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,7

1,5

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 26%

38%

13%

Points per game

1,5

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

25%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

63%

25%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

68% Possession 32%

19 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 4

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 14. · Burnley 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	6	3	1	+5	21
2	Tottenham	9	6	2	1	+12	20
3	Chelsea	9	5	3	1	+12	18
4	Leicester	9	6	0	3	+6	18
5	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+4	17
6	Everton	9	5	1	3	+3	16
7	Aston Villa	8	5	0	3	+8	15
8	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+5	14
9	Wolves	9	4	2	3	-1	14
10	Newcastle	10	4	2	4	-3	14
11	Man United	8	4	1	3	-1	13
12	Arsenal	9	4	1	4	-1	13
13	Crystal Palace	10	4	1	5	-3	13
14	Man City	8	3	3	2	-1	12
15	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-3	11
16	Brighton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-8	5
18	Fulham	9	1	1	7	-9	4
19	West Brom	9	0	3	6	-12	3
20	Sheffield United	9	0	1	8	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+8	15
2	Southampton	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+2	8
4	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	Everton	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Aston Villa	5	2	0	3	+1	6
10	Leicester	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Arsenal	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Newcastle	5	2	0	3	-5	6
13	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Man City	3	1	1	1	-2	4
15	Man United	5	1	1	3	-7	4
16	Brighton	5	0	3	2	-3	3
17	Burnley	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Fulham	5	1	0	4	-6	3
19	West Brom	4	0	2	2	-4	2
20	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Leicester	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+7	11
4	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+7	9
5	Man United	3	3	0	0	+6	9
6	Everton	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Man City	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+2	7
11	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
13	Leeds	4	2	0	2	+0	6
14	Wolves	4	2	0	2	-2	6
15	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-3	6
16	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-4	6
17	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-3	1
19	West Brom	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.