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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Cardiff

T S T U T

4–0

Full-time

Luton

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 31%

23%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 19%

23%

15%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

38%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

38% Possession 62%

20 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 0

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 18. · Luton 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	13	8	3	2	+7	27
2	Bournemouth	13	7	5	1	+10	26
3	Reading	14	8	2	4	+5	26
4	Bristol City	14	7	3	4	+3	24
5	Watford	13	6	5	2	+5	23
6	Brentford	13	6	4	3	+7	22
7	Swansea	12	6	4	2	+7	22
8	Middlesbrough	13	5	6	2	+6	21
9	Stoke	13	6	3	4	+3	21
10	Millwall	13	4	7	2	+2	19
11	Luton	13	5	4	4	-2	19
12	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	+10	18
13	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
14	Barnsley	13	4	4	5	+0	16
15	Preston	13	5	1	7	-1	16
16	Huddersfield	13	4	3	6	-2	15
17	Birmingham	13	3	6	4	-2	15
18	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	+0	14
19	Sheffield Weds	13	3	4	6	-5	13
20	Rotherham	13	3	3	7	-4	12
21	Nott'm Forest	13	3	3	7	-7	12
22	Coventry	13	3	3	7	-10	12
23	Wycombe	13	2	3	8	-13	9
24	Derby	13	1	3	9	-15	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	7	5	2	0	+7	17
2	Watford	6	5	1	0	+6	16
3	Reading	7	5	0	2	+3	15
4	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Swansea	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	QPR	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Barnsley	7	3	2	2	+4	11
9	Norwich	6	3	2	1	+2	11
10	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
11	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+0	11
12	Coventry	7	3	2	2	-3	11
13	Luton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
14	Blackburn	6	2	2	2	+4	8
15	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+0	8
16	Millwall	7	1	5	1	-1	8
17	Rotherham	6	2	1	3	+1	7
18	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	-1	7
19	Birmingham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
20	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	-1	6
21	Wycombe	7	1	3	3	-3	6
22	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-1	5
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	-8	3
24	Derby	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	7	5	1	1	+5	16
2	Preston	6	4	1	1	+7	13
3	Bristol City	7	4	1	2	+2	13
4	Brentford	7	3	2	2	+3	11
5	Millwall	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Reading	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+6	10
8	Stoke	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Luton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
10	Bournemouth	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	Cardiff	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Birmingham	7	1	5	1	+0	8
14	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Middlesbrough	6	1	4	1	+0	7
16	Watford	7	1	4	2	-1	7
17	Sheffield Weds	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	Rotherham	7	1	2	4	-5	5
20	Derby	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	QPR	7	1	2	4	-6	5
22	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	4
23	Wycombe	6	1	0	5	-10	3
24	Coventry	6	0	1	5	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.