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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Chelsea

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

3,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

1,8

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,46 xG 0,87

66% Possession 34%

22 Shots 16

8 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 6

8 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

6 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chelsea 4. · Nott'm Forest 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	6	0	1	+11	+9.1	18
2	Man City	7	5	2	0	+9	+6.1	17
3	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+9	+5.6	17
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	+5.2	13
5	Aston Villa	6	4	1	1	+3	+3.2	13
6	Newcastle	7	3	3	1	+1	+0.1	12
7	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.8	11
8	Tottenham	6	3	1	2	+7	+7.3	10
9	Brentford	7	3	1	3	+0	-2.0	10
10	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.8	9
11	Nott'm Forest	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.1	9
12	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-1	-0.2	8
13	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+2.9	8
14	Man United	6	2	1	3	-3	-0.5	7
15	Leicester	7	1	3	3	-3	-9.8	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.9	5
17	Ipswich	7	0	4	3	-8	-10.6	4
18	Crystal Palace	7	0	3	4	-5	-2.4	3
19	Southampton	7	0	1	6	-11	-5.7	1
20	Wolves	7	0	1	6	-12	-7.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+7.5	10
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.7	10
3	Brentford	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.2	10
4	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.7	7
5	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.3	7
6	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	+4.1	6
7	Liverpool	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.8	6
8	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.8	6
9	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.6	5
10	Leicester	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.0	5
11	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.3	4
12	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+0	+5.1	4
13	Everton	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.7	4
14	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.0	3
15	Man United	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.1	3
16	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.2	2
17	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.3	2
18	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.2	2
19	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
20	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+8	+0.1	9
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.9	7
5	Aston Villa	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.3	7
6	Nott'm Forest	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.2	7
7	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.1	5
8	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.3	5
9	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
10	Man United	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.6	4
11	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.3	4
12	Fulham	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.1	4
13	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.6	4
14	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-6	-8.3	2
15	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
16	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	-6.8	1
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.2	1
18	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-6	-5.5	1
19	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-6.2	0
20	Southampton	4	0	0	4	-7	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.