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League Cup

Referee: S Allison

Nott'm Forest

S T S U S

1–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

13 Free kicks against 6

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Preston	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Leyton Orient	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Coventry	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
18	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
19	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
20	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
21	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
37	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
39	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
40	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
41	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
42	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
51	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
52	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
53	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
83	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Preston	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
31	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
32	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
33	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
47	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
48	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
49	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
50	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
48	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
49	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
52	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
53	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
54	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.