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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Nott'm Forest

T U T U T

1–2

Full-time

Newcastle

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 34%

23%

44%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

38%

36%

Both score Ø 41%

38%

44%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,37 xG 2,48

38% Possession 62%

5 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 9

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 14. · Newcastle 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	27	21	3	3	+37	+8.8	66
2	Man City	27	19	4	4	+42	+12.1	61
3	Man United	26	15	5	6	+6	+0.7	50
4	Tottenham	27	15	3	9	+12	+0.8	48
5	Newcastle	25	11	11	3	+19	+0.7	44
6	Liverpool	26	12	6	8	+18	+6.2	42
7	Brighton	25	12	6	7	+15	+8.8	42
8	Brentford	26	10	11	5	+9	+4.8	41
9	Fulham	27	11	6	10	+1	-4.1	39
10	Chelsea	26	10	7	9	+1	+0.9	37
11	Aston Villa	26	10	5	11	-7	-5.3	35
12	Crystal Palace	27	6	9	12	-13	-6.9	27
13	Wolves	27	7	6	14	-17	-4.8	27
14	Nott'm Forest	26	6	8	12	-26	-6.0	26
15	Everton	27	6	7	14	-18	-3.9	25
16	Leicester	26	7	3	16	-9	-1.9	24
17	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-10	+0.4	24
18	Bournemouth	26	6	6	14	-26	-4.7	24
19	Leeds	26	5	8	13	-11	-1.2	23
20	Southampton	27	6	4	17	-23	-5.2	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	11	1	1	+30	+7.5	34
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+18	+4.6	32
3	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+25	+5.4	30
4	Man United	13	9	3	1	+16	+4.7	30
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+13	+2.0	30
6	Brentford	13	7	5	1	+14	+2.0	26
7	Newcastle	13	7	5	1	+12	+0.9	26
8	Brighton	13	7	2	4	+11	+6.0	23
9	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.9	22
10	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.1	21
11	Nott'm Forest	13	5	5	3	+2	-2.8	20
12	Aston Villa	13	6	2	5	+1	-2.6	20
13	West Ham	13	5	3	5	+3	+4.8	18
14	Leeds	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
15	Everton	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.4	17
16	Wolves	13	5	2	6	-5	-0.4	17
17	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-6	-6.0	17
18	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.4	16
19	Leicester	13	3	3	7	-1	-0.5	12
20	Southampton	13	2	3	8	-10	-2.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	11	1	2	+19	+4.2	34
2	Man City	14	8	3	3	+12	+4.5	27
3	Man United	13	6	2	5	-10	-4.0	20
4	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.8	19
5	Newcastle	12	4	6	2	+7	-0.2	18
6	Tottenham	13	5	3	5	-1	-1.3	18
7	Fulham	13	5	2	6	+0	-3.2	17
8	Chelsea	14	4	4	6	-5	-1.2	16
9	Brentford	13	3	6	4	-5	+2.8	15
10	Aston Villa	13	4	3	6	-8	-2.7	15
11	Southampton	14	4	1	9	-13	-2.8	13
12	Liverpool	13	3	3	7	-7	+0.8	12
13	Leicester	13	4	0	9	-8	-1.4	12
14	Crystal Palace	13	2	4	7	-7	-0.9	10
15	Wolves	14	2	4	8	-12	-4.4	10
16	Everton	13	1	5	7	-14	-4.3	8
17	Bournemouth	13	2	2	9	-23	-2.4	8
18	Leeds	13	1	3	9	-11	-2.2	6
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	13	1	3	9	-28	-3.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.