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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Man City

S S S S U

2–2

Full-time

Arsenal

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 88%

100%

75%

Points per game

3,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

2,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,18 xG 0,67

77% Possession 23%

33 Shots 5

11 Shots on target 3

13 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Man City 2. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	0	1	+9	+6.4	12
2	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.3	12
3	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+3	+3.5	12
4	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.1	10
5	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.6	10
6	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+1	-2.0	10
7	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.3	9
8	Nott'm Forest	5	2	3	0	+2	+2.6	9
9	Fulham	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.2	8
10	Tottenham	5	2	1	2	+4	+3.7	7
11	Man United	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.1	7
12	Brentford	5	2	0	3	-2	-4.6	6
13	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	+0.8	5
14	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.9	4
15	Leicester	5	0	3	2	-2	-4.2	3
16	Crystal Palace	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.7	3
17	Ipswich	5	0	3	2	-5	-7.9	3
18	Southampton	5	0	1	4	-7	-2.7	1
19	Everton	5	0	1	4	-9	-3.4	1
20	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.7	7
2	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	+4.1	6
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.3	6
4	Liverpool	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.8	6
5	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
6	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.0	6
7	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.8	6
8	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.6	5
9	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
10	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.6	3
11	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
12	Leicester	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.7	2
13	Crystal Palace	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.6	2
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.6	1
15	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+2.1	1
16	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
17	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
18	Everton	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-0.0	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+8	+0.1	9
2	Nott'm Forest	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.2	7
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
4	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.0	6
5	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
6	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.7	6
7	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.7	4
8	Man United	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.6	4
9	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
10	Newcastle	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.0	4
11	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.8	4
12	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-3	-5.2	2
13	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.5	1
14	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
15	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.2	1
16	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
17	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.3	1
18	Everton	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.2	1
19	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.3	0
20	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.