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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Bournemouth

U T S T T

3–1

Full-time

Southampton

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,4

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,38 xG 0,60

40% Possession 60%

14 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 13. · Southampton 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	0	1	+10	+8.3	15
2	Man City	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.1	14
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+7	+3.4	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	+5.2	13
5	Aston Villa	6	4	1	1	+3	+3.2	13
6	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+3	+1.7	11
7	Newcastle	6	3	2	1	+1	-1.3	11
8	Tottenham	6	3	1	2	+7	+7.3	10
9	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.8	9
10	Nott'm Forest	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.1	9
11	Brentford	6	2	1	3	-2	-5.2	7
12	Man United	6	2	1	3	-3	-0.5	7
13	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	+0.8	5
14	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-4	-3.3	5
15	Ipswich	6	0	4	2	-5	-7.5	4
16	Everton	6	1	1	4	-8	-3.5	4
17	Leicester	6	0	3	3	-4	-8.5	3
18	Crystal Palace	6	0	3	3	-4	-1.6	3
19	Southampton	5	0	1	4	-7	-2.7	1
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	1	0	+4	+5.8	7
2	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+4	+5.3	7
3	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.7	7
4	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
5	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.3	7
6	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	+4.1	6
7	Liverpool	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.8	6
8	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.8	6
9	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.6	5
10	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+0	+5.1	4
11	Everton	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.3	3
12	Man United	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.1	3
13	Leicester	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.7	2
14	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.2	2
15	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.3	2
16	Crystal Palace	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.6	2
17	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.6	1
18	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.9	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+8	+0.1	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.5	9
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.9	7
5	Aston Villa	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.3	7
6	Nott'm Forest	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.2	7
7	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.1	5
8	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
9	Man United	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.6	4
10	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.3	4
11	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
12	Newcastle	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.0	4
13	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.8	4
14	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-3	-5.2	2
15	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
16	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	-6.8	1
17	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.3	1
18	Everton	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.2	1
19	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.3	0
20	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.