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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Roma

U T T U T

4–1

Full-time

Lecce

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,3

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 21%

21%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

43%

29%

Both score Ø 36%

50%

21%

Average goals

2,4

2,1

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,90 xG 0,92

60% Possession 40%

23 Shots 3

9 Shots on target 1

9 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 15. · Lecce 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	15	11	1	3	+21	+15.2	34
2	Napoli	14	10	2	2	+12	+9.1	32
3	Inter	14	9	4	1	+19	+12.7	31
4	Fiorentina	13	8	4	1	+17	+8.1	28
5	Lazio	14	9	1	4	+12	+13.6	28
6	Juventus	15	6	9	0	+14	+9.4	27
7	Milan	14	6	4	4	+8	+9.2	22
8	Bologna	14	5	7	2	+2	+1.3	22
9	Udinese	14	5	2	7	-5	-7.0	17
10	Torino	15	4	4	7	-4	-6.4	16
11	Empoli	14	3	7	4	-4	-9.7	16
12	Parma	15	3	6	6	-4	-6.0	15
13	Genoa	15	3	6	6	-11	-8.5	15
14	Cagliari	14	3	5	6	-9	-3.3	14
15	Roma	14	3	4	7	-6	-3.4	13
16	Lecce	14	3	4	7	-15	-7.8	13
17	Verona	14	4	0	10	-16	-11.7	12
18	Como	14	2	5	7	-12	-1.7	11
19	Monza	14	1	7	6	-5	-6.5	10
20	Venezia	14	2	2	10	-14	-6.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+11	+11.0	19
2	Atalanta	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.2	18
3	Napoli	7	6	0	1	+7	+7.6	18
4	Inter	8	5	2	1	+9	+6.4	17
5	Milan	7	4	2	1	+9	+6.3	14
6	Fiorentina	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.2	14
7	Juventus	8	3	5	0	+6	+6.4	14
8	Udinese	7	4	0	3	+0	-3.8	12
9	Bologna	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.3	10
10	Roma	7	3	0	4	+0	-0.4	9
11	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-6	-0.2	9
12	Verona	7	3	0	4	-7	-4.0	9
13	Lecce	7	2	3	2	-8	-0.3	9
14	Torino	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.5	8
15	Parma	8	2	2	4	-2	-2.7	8
16	Empoli	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.6	7
17	Venezia	6	2	0	4	-2	+3.9	6
18	Como	6	1	3	2	-5	-0.2	6
19	Genoa	9	0	6	3	-6	-4.5	6
20	Monza	7	0	3	4	-4	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+8	+7.0	16
2	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.3	14
3	Fiorentina	7	4	2	1	+9	+0.9	14
4	Napoli	7	4	2	1	+5	+1.4	14
5	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+8	+3.0	13
6	Bologna	8	3	3	2	-2	-3.1	12
7	Lazio	7	3	0	4	+1	+2.7	9
8	Empoli	7	2	3	2	-1	-7.1	9
9	Genoa	6	3	0	3	-5	-4.0	9
10	Milan	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.0	8
11	Torino	8	2	2	4	-3	-1.9	8
12	Monza	7	1	4	2	-1	-3.4	7
13	Parma	7	1	4	2	-2	-3.2	7
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-3.2	5
15	Udinese	7	1	2	4	-5	-3.2	5
16	Como	8	1	2	5	-7	-1.5	5
17	Roma	7	0	4	3	-6	-3.0	4
18	Lecce	7	1	1	5	-7	-7.5	4
19	Verona	7	1	0	6	-9	-7.7	3
20	Venezia	8	0	2	6	-12	-10.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.