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Championship
Referee: R Madley
1–1
Full-time
Preston
U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sheffield Weds Preston
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
1,5
0,7
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 28%
39%
17%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
50%
44%
Both score Ø 47%
44%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
1,2
0,9
Conceded
1,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,46 xG 3,34
54% Possession 46%
13 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 9
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sheffield Weds 12. · Preston 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Burnley 19 10 7 2 +17 +6.6 37
2 Leeds 18 10 5 3 +18 +17.9 35
3 Sheffield United 16 10 4 2 +14 +7.5 34
4 Sunderland 16 9 5 2 +14 +2.0 32
5 Middlesbrough 19 9 4 6 +11 +16.8 31
6 Watford 18 9 3 6 +2 -2.9 30
7 West Brom 18 6 10 2 +7 +4.7 28
8 Blackburn 17 8 4 5 +4 +0.6 28
9 Norwich 18 6 7 5 +8 +4.1 25
10 Millwall 17 6 7 4 +5 +8.5 25
11 Bristol City 17 6 7 4 +4 +3.6 25
12 Sheffield Weds 18 7 4 7 -5 -1.3 25
13 Swansea 18 6 5 7 +1 -1.8 23
14 Stoke 18 5 6 7 -3 -9.3 21
15 Derby 18 5 5 8 -2 +1.0 20
16 Oxford 18 4 6 8 -8 -11.2 18
17 Preston 18 3 9 6 -8 -3.2 18
18 Luton 18 5 3 10 -13 -1.9 18
19 Coventry 17 4 5 8 -3 +7.0 17
20 Cardiff 18 4 5 9 -11 -8.5 17
21 Plymouth 18 4 5 9 -20 -22.3 17
22 Hull 18 3 6 9 -9 -2.9 15
23 QPR 18 2 9 7 -11 -5.3 15
24 Portsmouth 16 2 7 7 -12 -9.7 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sheffield Weds Preston
14′
E. Riis 0–1
Liam Palmer 🟨
36′
Half-time 0–1
A. Musaba 🔁
↦ L. Palmer
46′
Pol Valentín 🔁
↦ I. Ugbo
46′
S. Ingelsson 🔁
↦ Y. Valery
46′
Josh Windass
penalty missed
53′
63′
🟨 Alistair McCann
J. Lowe 🔁
↦ J. Windass
65′
Shea Charles 🟨
69′
Marvin Johnson 🟨
70′
N. Chalobah 🔁
↦ S. Charles
73′
1–1 M. Smith
A. Musaba
76′
77′
🔁 D. Holmes
↦ M. Frøkjær-Jensen
Nathaniel Chalobah 🟨
78′
81′
🟨 Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
82′
🔁 B. Whiteman
↦ S. Þórðarson
88′
🔁 M. Osmajić
↦ E. Riis
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Sheffield Weds

3-4-2-1
1 J. Beadle G
27 Y. Valery D
5 D. Bernard D
3 M. Lowe D
41 D. Gassama M
44 S. Charles M
2 L. Palmer M
18 M. Johnson M
11 J. Windass F
12 I. Ugbo F
24 M. Smith F
Bench (9)
45 A. Musaba
14 Pol Valentín
8 S. Ingelsson
9 J. Lowe
4 N. Chalobah
6 D. Iorfa
17 C. McNeill
47 P. Charles
20 M. Ihiekwe

Coach: D. Röhl

Preston

3-4-2-1
1 F. Woodman G
14 J. Storey D
5 J. Whatmough D
16 A. Hughes D
44 B. Potts M
8 A. McCann M
22 S. Þórðarson M
29 K. Kesler-Hayden M
20 S. Greenwood F
10 M. Frøkjær-Jensen F
9 E. Riis F
Bench (9)
25 D. Holmes
4 B. Whiteman
28 M. Osmajić
40 J. Bowler
18 R. Ledson
13 D. Cornell
6 L. Lindsay
26 P. Bauer
7 W. Keane

Coach: P. Heckingbottom

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,95
U ✓
3,36
B
4,13
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,22
U2,5 ✓
1,66
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Madley · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.