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Primeira Liga

Referee: Pedro Ramalho

Gil Vicente

T T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Nacional

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gil Vicente Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,3

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/11 matches

Win Ø 18%

17%

18%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

67%

18%

Both score Ø 38%

58%

18%

Average goals

3,1

1,9

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,65 xG 2,01

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 9

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Gil Vicente 13. · Nacional 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	0	2	+32	+26.8	33
2	Porto	12	10	0	2	+22	+16.2	30
3	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+23	+14.3	28
4	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+9	+10.4	24
5	Santa Clara	12	8	0	4	+3	+7.9	24
6	Guimaraes	12	6	3	3	+5	+1.4	21
7	Moreirense	13	6	2	5	+1	+1.5	20
8	Famalicao	12	4	5	3	+2	-3.9	17
9	Rio Ave	12	4	3	5	-9	-8.3	15
10	Estoril	13	3	5	5	-7	-13.6	14
11	Casa Pia	12	3	4	5	-6	-3.7	13
12	Boavista	12	2	4	6	-8	-1.4	10
13	Gil Vicente	12	2	4	6	-9	-6.1	10
14	AVS	12	2	4	6	-11	-7.4	10
15	Nacional	11	2	3	6	-9	-1.8	9
16	Estrela	12	2	3	7	-11	-8.2	9
17	Farense	12	2	2	8	-12	-12.1	8
18	Arouca	12	2	2	8	-15	-11.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+17	+15.9	21
2	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+19	+9.9	18
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	0	1	+12	+11.3	15
4	Santa Clara	6	5	0	1	+3	+7.5	15
5	Moreirense	6	4	2	0	+5	-1.5	14
6	Guimaraes	6	4	1	1	+4	+3.1	13
7	Rio Ave	6	3	3	0	+3	+3.4	12
8	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+4	+7.3	11
9	Estoril	7	3	2	2	-1	-6.5	11
10	Famalicao	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.6	9
11	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.5	8
12	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.3	8
13	Estrela	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.8	8
14	AVS	7	2	2	3	-5	-5.8	8
15	Nacional	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.2	7
16	Farense	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.7	6
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.4	4
18	Boavista	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+20	+15.4	18
2	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+5	+3.1	13
3	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+4	+4.3	10
4	Porto	5	3	0	2	+5	+0.4	9
5	Santa Clara	6	3	0	3	+0	+0.5	9
6	Boavista	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.5	9
7	Famalicao	6	2	2	2	+2	-2.4	8
8	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.7	8
9	Moreirense	7	2	0	5	-4	+3.0	6
10	Casa Pia	6	1	2	3	-6	-5.0	5
11	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-9	-5.5	4
12	Estoril	6	0	3	3	-6	-7.1	3
13	Rio Ave	6	1	0	5	-12	-11.7	3
14	Nacional	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.5	2
15	AVS	5	0	2	3	-6	-1.6	2
16	Farense	6	0	2	4	-6	-8.5	2
17	Gil Vicente	7	0	2	5	-13	-7.7	2
18	Estrela	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.