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Championship

Referee: J Bell

Luton

S T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Swansea

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 31%

28%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

61%

33%

Both score Ø 48%

56%

39%

Average goals

2,9

1,9

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,87 xG 2,16

35% Possession 65%

8 Shots 20

2 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 5

9 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 18. · Swansea 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	19	11	5	3	+20	+19.1	38
2	Burnley	19	10	7	2	+17	+6.6	37
3	Sunderland	17	10	5	2	+15	+3.7	35
4	Sheffield United	16	10	4	2	+14	+7.5	34
5	Middlesbrough	19	9	4	6	+11	+16.8	31
6	Watford	18	9	3	6	+2	-2.9	30
7	West Brom	18	6	10	2	+7	+4.7	28
8	Blackburn	17	8	4	5	+4	+0.6	28
9	Sheffield Weds	19	7	5	7	-5	-3.1	26
10	Norwich	18	6	7	5	+8	+4.1	25
11	Millwall	17	6	7	4	+5	+8.5	25
12	Bristol City	17	6	7	4	+4	+3.6	25
13	Swansea	18	6	5	7	+1	-1.8	23
14	Stoke	19	5	6	8	-4	-10.9	21
15	Derby	19	5	5	9	-4	-0.2	20
16	Preston	19	3	10	6	-8	-1.3	19
17	Oxford	18	4	6	8	-8	-11.2	18
18	Luton	18	5	3	10	-13	-1.9	18
19	Coventry	17	4	5	8	-3	+7.0	17
20	Cardiff	18	4	5	9	-11	-8.5	17
21	Plymouth	18	4	5	9	-20	-22.3	17
22	Hull	18	3	6	9	-9	-2.9	15
23	QPR	18	2	9	7	-11	-5.3	15
24	Portsmouth	16	2	7	7	-12	-9.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	10	8	1	1	+17	+13.6	25
2	Watford	9	7	2	0	+9	+1.4	23
3	Sheffield United	8	7	1	0	+11	+9.3	22
4	Sunderland	8	6	2	0	+11	+4.6	20
5	Burnley	9	5	4	0	+10	+3.9	19
6	Blackburn	9	6	1	2	+6	+2.5	19
7	Millwall	9	5	2	2	+6	+8.1	17
8	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+4	+8.4	17
9	Norwich	9	4	4	1	+12	+5.0	16
10	Oxford	10	4	4	2	+1	-4.4	16
11	Plymouth	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.5	15
12	Derby	9	4	2	3	+4	+5.9	14
13	Luton	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.2	14
14	Preston	10	3	5	2	+1	+2.6	14
15	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+5	+2.0	13
16	Swansea	9	3	4	2	+3	+6.2	13
17	Stoke	10	3	4	3	+2	-2.5	13
18	Sheffield Weds	10	3	4	3	-1	+1.4	13
19	Cardiff	9	4	0	5	-1	-2.0	12
20	Coventry	9	3	2	4	+1	+8.3	11
21	West Brom	8	2	5	1	+1	+4.6	11
22	Hull	9	1	4	4	-3	+0.2	7
23	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-4	-1.3	6
24	QPR	9	0	5	4	-8	+0.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	10	5	3	2	+7	+2.8	18
2	West Brom	10	4	5	1	+6	+0.1	17
3	Sunderland	9	4	3	2	+4	-0.9	15
4	Middlesbrough	9	4	2	3	+7	+8.3	14
5	Leeds	9	3	4	2	+3	+5.5	13
6	Sheffield Weds	9	4	1	4	-4	-4.6	13
7	Sheffield United	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.8	12
8	Bristol City	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.6	12
9	Swansea	9	3	1	5	-2	-8.1	10
10	QPR	9	2	4	3	-3	-5.9	10
11	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.9	9
12	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.9	9
13	Millwall	8	1	5	2	-1	+0.4	8
14	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.1	8
15	Stoke	9	2	2	5	-6	-8.4	8
16	Watford	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.3	7
17	Portsmouth	9	1	4	4	-8	-8.4	7
18	Coventry	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.3	6
19	Derby	10	1	3	6	-8	-6.1	6
20	Preston	9	0	5	4	-9	-3.9	5
21	Cardiff	9	0	5	4	-10	-6.5	5
22	Luton	9	1	1	7	-14	-5.0	4
23	Oxford	8	0	2	6	-9	-6.8	2
24	Plymouth	10	0	2	8	-24	-19.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.