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League Cup

Referee: J Gillett

Arsenal

U T S S S

1–3

Full-time

Brighton

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

22 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milton Keynes Dons	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Lincoln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Stevenage	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Derby	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Crawley Town	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Newport County	3	2	0	1	-1	6
11	Gillingham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Charlton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
14	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+3	4
15	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+3	4
16	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Stockport County	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	Morecambe	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
25	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Colchester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
44	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
46	Barrow	2	0	2	0	+0	2
47	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-1	1
54	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
55	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Milton Keynes Dons	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Stevenage	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
21	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
24	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
33	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lincoln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
4	Gillingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Morecambe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Newport County	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
53	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
54	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.