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Serie A

Referee: G Calvarese

Fiorentina

S U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Milan

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

42%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

54%

42%

Both score Ø 55%

63%

46%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

11 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 7

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 13. · Milan 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	25	19	3	3	+24	60
2	Lazio	24	17	5	2	+34	56
3	Inter	24	16	6	2	+27	54
4	Atalanta	24	13	6	5	+31	45
5	Roma	24	11	6	7	+11	39
6	Napoli	25	10	6	9	+4	36
7	Verona	24	9	8	7	+4	35
8	Parma	24	10	5	9	+2	35
9	Milan	24	10	5	9	-5	35
10	Bologna	25	9	7	9	-2	34
11	Cagliari	24	8	8	8	+2	32
12	Sassuolo	24	8	5	11	-1	29
13	Fiorentina	24	7	7	10	-4	28
14	Torino	24	8	3	13	-16	27
15	Udinese	25	7	6	12	-16	27
16	Lecce	24	6	7	11	-13	25
17	Sampdoria	24	6	5	13	-17	23
18	Genoa	24	5	7	12	-16	22
19	Brescia	25	4	4	17	-24	16
20	Spal	25	4	3	18	-25	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	11	1	0	+19	34
2	Lazio	13	10	3	0	+27	33
3	Inter	12	7	4	1	+13	25
4	Verona	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Atalanta	12	6	2	4	+14	20
6	Parma	12	6	1	5	+6	19
7	Roma	12	5	3	4	+3	18
8	Udinese	12	5	3	4	-2	18
9	Cagliari	12	5	2	5	+3	17
10	Milan	12	4	5	3	-1	17
11	Bologna	13	4	5	4	-2	17
12	Sassuolo	12	5	1	6	+3	16
13	Napoli	12	4	2	6	-2	14
14	Torino	12	4	2	6	-11	14
15	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-3	13
16	Fiorentina	12	3	4	5	-4	13
17	Sampdoria	13	3	4	6	-7	13
18	Lecce	12	2	5	5	-2	11
19	Spal	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Brescia	13	1	3	9	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	2	1	+14	29
2	Juventus	13	8	2	3	+5	26
3	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+17	25
4	Lazio	11	7	2	2	+7	23
5	Napoli	13	6	4	3	+6	22
6	Roma	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Milan	12	6	0	6	-4	18
8	Bologna	12	5	2	5	+0	17
9	Parma	12	4	4	4	-4	16
10	Fiorentina	12	4	3	5	+0	15
11	Cagliari	12	3	6	3	-1	15
12	Verona	12	3	5	4	-1	14
13	Lecce	12	4	2	6	-11	14
14	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	Torino	12	4	1	7	-5	13
16	Sampdoria	11	3	1	7	-10	10
17	Brescia	12	3	1	8	-12	10
18	Genoa	13	1	6	6	-13	9
19	Udinese	13	2	3	8	-14	9
20	Spal	13	2	1	10	-16	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.