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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Inter

S U U U S

4–2

Full-time

Milan

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 55%

68%

41%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

59%

41%

Both score Ø 55%

64%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

43% Possession 57%

14 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 8

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 3. · Milan 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	23	17	3	3	+21	54
2	Lazio	23	16	5	2	+33	53
3	Inter	22	15	6	1	+26	51
4	Atalanta	23	12	6	5	+30	42
5	Roma	23	11	6	6	+12	39
6	Verona	23	9	7	7	+4	34
7	Bologna	23	9	6	8	+1	33
8	Cagliari	23	8	8	7	+3	32
9	Parma	23	9	5	9	+1	32
10	Milan	22	9	5	8	-4	32
11	Napoli	23	8	6	9	+2	30
12	Sassuolo	23	8	5	10	+0	29
13	Torino	23	8	3	12	-15	27
14	Fiorentina	23	6	7	10	-8	25
15	Udinese	23	7	4	12	-16	25
16	Sampdoria	23	6	5	12	-13	23
17	Lecce	23	5	7	11	-14	22
18	Genoa	23	4	7	12	-19	19
19	Brescia	23	4	4	15	-21	16
20	Spal	23	4	3	16	-23	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Lazio	12	9	3	0	+26	30
3	Inter	11	6	4	1	+11	22
4	Verona	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Parma	12	6	1	5	+6	19
6	Roma	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+13	17
8	Cagliari	11	5	2	4	+4	17
9	Udinese	11	5	2	4	-2	17
10	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+4	16
11	Bologna	11	4	4	3	+1	16
12	Napoli	12	4	2	6	-2	14
13	Milan	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Torino	12	4	2	6	-11	14
15	Sampdoria	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-3	13
17	Fiorentina	12	3	4	5	-4	13
18	Lecce	11	1	5	5	-3	8
19	Spal	11	2	2	7	-8	8
20	Brescia	12	1	3	8	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	2	0	+15	29
2	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+17	25
3	Lazio	11	7	2	2	+7	23
4	Juventus	12	7	2	3	+4	23
5	Roma	11	6	3	2	+9	21
6	Milan	11	6	0	5	-2	18
7	Bologna	12	5	2	5	+0	17
8	Napoli	11	4	4	3	+4	16
9	Cagliari	12	3	6	3	-1	15
10	Lecce	12	4	2	6	-11	14
11	Verona	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Torino	11	4	1	6	-4	13
13	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
14	Parma	11	3	4	4	-5	13
15	Fiorentina	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Sampdoria	11	3	1	7	-10	10
17	Brescia	11	3	1	7	-10	10
18	Udinese	12	2	2	8	-14	8
19	Spal	12	2	1	9	-15	7
20	Genoa	12	0	6	6	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.