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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota

Tondela

T T S U T

1–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,3

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 36%

26%

45%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

39%

27%

Both score Ø 38%

35%

41%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

7 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 15. · Rio Ave 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	23	19	2	2	+39	59
2	Benfica	22	19	0	3	+38	57
3	Sp Lisbon	22	12	3	7	+11	39
4	Sp Braga	22	11	4	7	+9	37
5	Rio Ave	22	10	6	6	+9	36
6	Famalicao	22	10	6	6	+0	36
7	Guimaraes	23	8	8	7	+12	32
8	Gil Vicente	23	7	9	7	-3	30
9	Santa Clara	22	8	6	8	-4	30
10	Boavista	22	7	7	8	-2	28
11	Setubal	21	6	8	7	-8	26
12	Vitoria Setubal	21	6	8	7	-8	26
13	Moreirense	23	5	10	8	-1	25
14	Maritimo	22	5	10	7	-6	25
15	Tondela	23	6	7	10	-10	25
16	Belenenses	22	6	3	13	-21	21
17	Portimonense	22	2	10	10	-15	16
18	Pacos Ferreira	22	4	4	14	-19	16
19	Aves	23	4	1	18	-21	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	0	1	+23	30
2	Benfica	12	10	0	2	+22	30
3	Famalicao	12	6	3	3	+3	21
4	Rio Ave	12	5	4	3	+5	19
5	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+3	18
6	Sp Lisbon	10	6	0	4	+3	18
7	Gil Vicente	11	4	6	1	+3	18
8	Guimaraes	11	5	2	4	+8	17
9	Moreirense	11	4	4	3	+2	16
10	Santa Clara	12	4	3	5	-4	15
11	Maritimo	11	3	5	3	+1	14
12	Setubal	11	3	5	3	-4	14
13	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	5	3	-4	14
14	Boavista	11	3	4	4	-1	13
15	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	2	7	-5	11
16	Belenenses	11	3	1	7	-12	10
17	Aves	11	3	0	8	-6	9
18	Portimonense	10	1	5	4	-4	8
19	Tondela	11	1	4	6	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	9	2	1	+16	29
2	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+16	27
3	Sp Lisbon	12	6	3	3	+8	21
4	Sp Braga	12	6	1	5	+6	19
5	Tondela	12	5	3	4	+0	18
6	Rio Ave	10	5	2	3	+4	17
7	Guimaraes	12	3	6	3	+4	15
8	Santa Clara	10	4	3	3	+0	15
9	Boavista	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-3	15
11	Setubal	10	3	3	4	-4	12
12	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	3	4	-4	12
13	Gil Vicente	12	3	3	6	-6	12
14	Maritimo	11	2	5	4	-7	11
15	Belenenses	11	3	2	6	-9	11
16	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-3	9
17	Portimonense	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	2	7	-14	5
19	Aves	12	1	1	10	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.