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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Fiorentina

U S S U T

1–2

Full-time

Atalanta

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

4,3

Scored

0,8

3,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,7

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 39%

27%

50%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

50%

82%

Both score Ø 64%

59%

68%

Average goals

2,6

4,0

Scored

1,1

2,7

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%

5 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 14. · Atalanta 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	22	17	3	2	+22	54
2	Inter	22	15	6	1	+26	51
3	Lazio	22	15	5	2	+32	50
4	Atalanta	22	11	6	5	+29	39
5	Roma	23	11	6	6	+12	39
6	Bologna	23	9	6	8	+1	33
7	Cagliari	22	8	8	6	+4	32
8	Parma	22	9	5	8	+2	32
9	Milan	22	9	5	8	-4	32
10	Verona	22	8	7	7	+3	31
11	Napoli	22	8	6	8	+3	30
12	Torino	22	8	3	11	-13	27
13	Sassuolo	22	7	5	10	-1	26
14	Fiorentina	22	6	7	9	-7	25
15	Udinese	22	7	3	12	-16	24
16	Sampdoria	22	5	5	12	-15	20
17	Lecce	22	4	7	11	-15	19
18	Genoa	22	3	7	12	-20	16
19	Brescia	22	4	3	15	-21	15
20	Spal	22	4	3	15	-22	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Lazio	12	9	3	0	+26	30
3	Inter	11	6	4	1	+11	22
4	Parma	11	6	1	4	+7	19
5	Verona	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Roma	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+13	17
8	Cagliari	11	5	2	4	+4	17
9	Udinese	11	5	2	4	-2	17
10	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+4	16
11	Bologna	11	4	4	3	+1	16
12	Napoli	11	4	2	5	-1	14
13	Milan	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Torino	11	4	2	5	-9	14
15	Sampdoria	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Fiorentina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
17	Genoa	10	3	1	6	-4	10
18	Lecce	11	1	5	5	-3	8
19	Spal	10	2	2	6	-7	8
20	Brescia	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	2	0	+15	29
2	Juventus	11	7	2	2	+5	23
3	Atalanta	11	6	4	1	+16	22
4	Roma	11	6	3	2	+9	21
5	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+6	20
6	Milan	11	6	0	5	-2	18
7	Bologna	12	5	2	5	+0	17
8	Napoli	11	4	4	3	+4	16
9	Cagliari	11	3	6	2	+0	15
10	Verona	11	3	4	4	-1	13
11	Torino	11	4	1	6	-4	13
12	Parma	11	3	4	4	-5	13
13	Fiorentina	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	Lecce	11	3	2	6	-12	11
15	Sassuolo	11	2	4	5	-5	10
16	Brescia	11	3	1	7	-10	10
17	Sampdoria	10	2	1	7	-12	7
18	Udinese	11	2	1	8	-14	7
19	Spal	12	2	1	9	-15	7
20	Genoa	12	0	6	6	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.