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Serie A

Referee: F Pasqua

Napoli

U T S T T

0–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

32%

26%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 68%

68%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

10 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 11. · Fiorentina 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	15	3	1	+19	48
2	Inter	19	14	4	1	+24	46
3	Lazio	19	14	3	2	+28	45
4	Atalanta	19	10	5	4	+23	35
5	Roma	19	10	5	4	+13	35
6	Cagliari	19	8	5	6	+4	29
7	Parma	19	8	4	7	+1	28
8	Torino	20	8	3	9	-2	27
9	Verona	18	7	4	7	+0	25
10	Milan	19	7	4	8	-6	25
11	Napoli	19	6	6	7	+2	24
12	Udinese	19	7	3	9	-11	24
13	Bologna	19	6	5	8	-3	23
14	Sassuolo	20	6	4	10	-3	22
15	Fiorentina	19	5	6	8	-6	21
16	Sampdoria	20	5	4	11	-13	19
17	Lecce	19	3	6	10	-16	15
18	Genoa	19	3	5	11	-18	14
19	Brescia	19	4	2	13	-19	14
20	Spal	19	3	3	13	-17	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	10	8	2	0	+22	26
2	Juventus	9	8	1	0	+13	25
3	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	21
4	Roma	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Udinese	10	5	2	3	+0	17
6	Atalanta	9	5	1	3	+14	16
7	Parma	10	5	1	4	+5	16
8	Cagliari	10	5	1	4	+4	16
9	Verona	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Torino	10	4	2	4	-2	14
11	Sassuolo	10	4	1	5	+2	13
12	Bologna	9	3	3	3	+0	12
13	Sampdoria	10	3	3	4	-1	12
14	Fiorentina	10	3	3	4	-3	12
15	Napoli	9	3	2	4	+0	11
16	Genoa	9	3	1	5	-2	10
17	Milan	9	2	4	3	-3	10
18	Spal	9	2	2	5	-5	8
19	Lecce	9	0	4	5	-7	4
20	Brescia	9	1	1	7	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+6	23
3	Atalanta	10	5	4	1	+9	19
4	Lazio	9	6	1	2	+6	19
5	Roma	9	5	3	1	+9	18
6	Milan	10	5	0	5	-3	15
7	Napoli	10	3	4	3	+2	13
8	Torino	10	4	1	5	+0	13
9	Cagliari	9	3	4	2	+0	13
10	Parma	9	3	3	3	-4	12
11	Bologna	10	3	2	5	-3	11
12	Lecce	10	3	2	5	-9	11
13	Verona	8	3	1	4	-1	10
14	Brescia	10	3	1	6	-9	10
15	Fiorentina	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Sassuolo	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Udinese	9	2	1	6	-11	7
18	Sampdoria	10	2	1	7	-12	7
19	Spal	10	1	1	8	-12	4
20	Genoa	10	0	4	6	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.