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Serie A

Referee: F Pasqua

Juventus

S S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

100%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 53%

76%

29%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

71%

48%

Both score Ø 67%

71%

62%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,9

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

74% Possession 26%

8 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 1. · Fiorentina 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	21	16	3	2	+19	51
2	Inter	21	14	6	1	+24	48
3	Lazio	20	14	4	2	+28	46
4	Roma	22	11	6	5	+13	39
5	Atalanta	21	11	5	5	+29	38
6	Cagliari	22	8	8	6	+4	32
7	Parma	22	9	5	8	+2	32
8	Milan	21	9	4	8	-4	31
9	Bologna	22	8	6	8	+0	30
10	Verona	20	8	5	7	+3	29
11	Napoli	21	7	6	8	+1	27
12	Torino	21	8	3	10	-9	27
13	Sassuolo	22	7	5	10	-1	26
14	Fiorentina	21	6	7	8	-4	25
15	Udinese	21	7	3	11	-14	24
16	Sampdoria	21	5	5	11	-13	20
17	Lecce	21	3	7	11	-19	16
18	Spal	21	4	3	14	-18	15
19	Genoa	21	3	6	12	-20	15
20	Brescia	22	4	3	15	-21	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	9	1	0	+14	28
2	Lazio	10	8	2	0	+22	26
3	Inter	11	6	4	1	+11	22
4	Parma	11	6	1	4	+7	19
5	Roma	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Verona	11	5	3	3	+4	18
7	Cagliari	11	5	2	4	+4	17
8	Udinese	10	5	2	3	+0	17
9	Atalanta	10	5	1	4	+13	16
10	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+4	16
11	Bologna	11	4	4	3	+1	16
12	Napoli	11	4	2	5	-1	14
13	Torino	11	4	2	5	-9	14
14	Sampdoria	11	3	4	4	-1	13
15	Milan	10	3	4	3	-2	13
16	Fiorentina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
17	Genoa	10	3	1	6	-4	10
18	Spal	10	2	2	6	-7	8
19	Lecce	10	0	5	5	-7	5
20	Brescia	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+13	26
2	Juventus	11	7	2	2	+5	23
3	Atalanta	11	6	4	1	+16	22
4	Roma	11	6	3	2	+9	21
5	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+6	20
6	Milan	11	6	0	5	-2	18
7	Cagliari	11	3	6	2	+0	15
8	Bologna	11	4	2	5	-1	14
9	Napoli	10	3	4	3	+2	13
10	Torino	10	4	1	5	+0	13
11	Parma	11	3	4	4	-5	13
12	Fiorentina	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Verona	9	3	2	4	-1	11
14	Lecce	11	3	2	6	-12	11
15	Sassuolo	11	2	4	5	-5	10
16	Brescia	11	3	1	7	-10	10
17	Spal	11	2	1	8	-11	7
18	Sampdoria	10	2	1	7	-12	7
19	Udinese	11	2	1	8	-14	7
20	Genoa	11	0	5	6	-16	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.