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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Napoli

S S T S S

3–0

Full-time

Parma

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 62%

83%

40%

Points per game

2,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

83%

40%

Both score Ø 54%

67%

40%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 60%

80%

40%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

80%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%

26 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 5

9 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 3. · Parma 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Lazio	6	4	0	2	+3	12
3	Napoli	5	4	0	1	+2	12
4	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+7	10
5	Sassuolo	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Inter	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Spal	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Udinese	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Sampdoria	5	2	1	2	+6	7
10	Parma	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Genoa	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Atalanta	5	1	2	2	+1	5
13	Milan	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Roma	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Torino	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Cagliari	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Bologna	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Chievo	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Frosinone	5	0	1	4	-12	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Sassuolo	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Spal	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Sampdoria	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Parma	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Milan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Inter	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+3	3
14	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Torino	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Bologna	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Roma	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Chievo	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Frosinone	3	0	1	2	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Inter	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+0	6
4	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+4	3
7	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Roma	3	1	0	2	-2	3
9	Cagliari	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Spal	3	1	0	2	-3	3
11	Torino	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Atalanta	3	0	2	1	-2	2
13	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Fiorentina	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
19	Genoa	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.