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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos

Valencia

S S T U S

1–0

Full-time

Real Madrid

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 47%

29%

65%

Points per game

1,1

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

47%

56%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

56%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,00 xG 1,39

27% Possession 73%

12 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 4

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Valencia 16. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	35	27	4	4	+50	+15.0	85
2	Ath Madrid	35	22	6	7	+36	+17.2	72
3	Real Madrid	34	22	5	7	+38	+17.6	71
4	Sociedad	35	19	8	8	+15	+6.4	65
5	Villarreal	35	18	6	11	+18	+10.2	60
6	Betis	34	16	7	11	+5	+0.8	55
7	Ath Bilbao	35	14	8	13	+7	+3.9	50
8	Girona	35	13	9	13	+5	-5.8	48
9	Sevilla	34	13	8	13	-5	+6.1	47
10	Osasuna	35	13	8	14	-7	-11.3	47
11	Vallecano	35	12	10	13	-5	-3.6	46
12	Mallorca	35	12	8	15	-7	-4.4	44
13	Celta	35	10	9	16	-10	-3.0	39
14	Almeria	35	11	6	18	-15	-8.0	39
15	Cadiz	35	9	11	15	-22	-5.0	38
16	Valencia	34	10	7	17	-3	-1.6	37
17	Getafe	35	8	11	16	-13	-3.9	35
18	Valladolid	35	10	5	20	-32	-15.4	35
19	Espanol	35	8	10	17	-17	-7.1	34
20	Elche	35	4	8	23	-38	-8.1	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	14	3	1	+30	+11.2	45
2	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+27	+15.2	40
3	Ath Madrid	18	12	3	3	+25	+14.8	39
4	Villarreal	17	11	2	4	+16	+9.5	35
5	Girona	18	10	3	5	+10	+2.0	33
6	Sociedad	17	9	5	3	+8	+7.5	32
7	Almeria	18	10	2	6	+7	+1.2	32
8	Betis	17	9	4	4	+9	+1.5	31
9	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+6	+2.3	29
10	Vallecano	18	8	5	5	+5	+0.2	29
11	Osasuna	17	9	1	7	+0	-2.0	28
12	Ath Bilbao	18	8	3	7	+8	+0.4	27
13	Valencia	17	7	4	6	+7	+4.0	25
14	Sevilla	17	7	4	6	+0	+10.5	25
15	Getafe	18	6	6	6	+0	+1.0	24
16	Cadiz	18	6	6	6	-5	+0.8	24
17	Valladolid	17	7	3	7	-6	-1.6	24
18	Celta	17	6	5	6	+4	+2.7	23
19	Espanol	17	4	5	8	-8	+2.7	17
20	Elche	17	3	4	10	-11	+1.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+20	+3.8	40
2	Ath Madrid	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.3	33
3	Sociedad	18	10	3	5	+7	-1.1	33
4	Real Madrid	17	10	1	6	+11	+2.4	31
5	Villarreal	18	7	4	7	+2	+0.7	25
6	Betis	17	7	3	7	-4	-0.7	24
7	Ath Bilbao	17	6	5	6	-1	+3.5	23
8	Sevilla	17	6	4	7	-5	-4.4	22
9	Osasuna	18	4	7	7	-7	-9.3	19
10	Espanol	18	4	5	9	-9	-9.8	17
11	Vallecano	17	4	5	8	-10	-3.9	17
12	Celta	18	4	4	10	-14	-5.6	16
13	Girona	17	3	6	8	-5	-7.8	15
14	Mallorca	18	4	3	11	-13	-6.7	15
15	Cadiz	17	3	5	9	-17	-5.8	14
16	Valencia	17	3	3	11	-10	-5.7	12
17	Getafe	17	2	5	10	-13	-4.9	11
18	Valladolid	18	3	2	13	-26	-13.8	11
19	Almeria	17	1	4	12	-22	-9.2	7
20	Elche	18	1	4	13	-27	-9.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.