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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Valencia

T S T S U

1–2

Full-time

Oviedo

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Oviedo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,51 xG 0,77

57% Possession 43%

16 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Valencia 12. · Oviedo 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	6	1	0	+16	+9.5	19
2	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+8	+5.6	18
3	Villarreal	7	5	1	1	+8	+5.3	16
4	Elche	7	3	4	0	+4	+1.5	13
5	Ath Madrid	7	3	3	1	+5	+6.5	12
6	Betis	7	3	3	1	+4	+4.1	12
7	Espanol	7	3	3	1	+1	+2.6	12
8	Getafe	7	3	2	2	-1	-2.0	11
9	Sevilla	7	3	1	3	+1	-6.2	10
10	Ath Bilbao	7	3	1	3	-1	+4.1	10
11	Alaves	7	2	2	3	-1	-0.7	8
12	Valencia	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.0	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	1	4	-2	-0.9	7
14	Levante	7	1	2	4	-3	-1.0	5
15	Vallecano	7	1	2	4	-3	+0.7	5
16	Celta	7	0	5	2	-3	-1.4	5
17	Sociedad	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.3	5
18	Mallorca	7	1	2	4	-5	-7.0	5
19	Oviedo	6	1	0	5	-9	-6.1	3
20	Girona	7	0	3	4	-13	-9.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	4	4	0	0	+9	+4.2	12
2	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.8	10
3	Elche	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.1	10
4	Espanol	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.1	10
5	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.8	9
6	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	+2.0	9
7	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.6	9
8	Valencia	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.1	7
9	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
10	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	+4.8	7
11	Getafe	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.7	5
12	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	-2	-3.7	5
13	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
14	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
15	Celta	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.6	3
16	Oviedo	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.9	3
17	Vallecano	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
18	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
19	Levante	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.5	1
20	Girona	4	0	1	3	-8	-4.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	3	1	0	+6	+2.7	10
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.0	9
3	Sevilla	4	3	0	1	+3	-4.5	9
4	Getafe	4	2	0	2	-3	-1.3	6
5	Levante	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.5	4
6	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.1	4
7	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
8	Betis	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.1	3
9	Elche	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.7	3
10	Vallecano	4	1	0	3	-2	-0.9	3
11	Ath Bilbao	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.7	3
12	Celta	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.0	2
13	Ath Madrid	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.7	2
14	Espanol	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.5	2
15	Girona	3	0	2	1	-5	-4.7	2
16	Sociedad	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.4	1
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	-7	-6.1	1
18	Mallorca	3	0	0	3	-3	-3.3	0
19	Osasuna	4	0	0	4	-5	-1.9	0
20	Oviedo	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.