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La Liga

Referee: José Munuera

Barcelona

U S T S S

2–3

Full-time

Villarreal

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

2,8

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 63%

75%

50%

Points per game

2,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

69%

64%

Both score Ø 64%

61%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,1

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,37 xG 1,75

69% Possession 31%

24 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	36	27	4	5	+61	+45.4	85
2	Real Madrid	36	24	6	6	+36	+28.4	78
3	Ath Madrid	36	20	10	6	+31	+26.0	70
4	Ath Bilbao	36	18	13	5	+27	+16.3	67
5	Villarreal	36	18	10	8	+17	+21.1	64
6	Betis	36	16	11	9	+10	+8.8	59
7	Celta	36	15	7	14	+2	+9.6	52
8	Vallecano	36	12	12	12	-5	-3.7	48
9	Osasuna	36	11	15	10	-6	-8.6	48
10	Mallorca	36	13	8	15	-8	-5.9	47
11	Valencia	36	11	12	13	-9	-7.5	45
12	Sociedad	36	12	7	17	-10	+1.2	43
13	Sevilla	36	10	11	15	-9	-4.2	41
14	Girona	36	11	8	17	-11	-4.8	41
15	Getafe	36	10	9	17	-5	-8.0	39
16	Espanol	36	10	9	17	-11	-21.2	39
17	Alaves	36	9	11	16	-11	-3.2	38
18	Leganes	36	7	13	16	-21	-27.2	34
19	Las Palmas	36	8	8	20	-18	-29.9	32
20	Valladolid	36	4	4	28	-60	-32.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	15	1	2	+24	+25.9	46
2	Barcelona	18	14	1	3	+33	+34.7	43
3	Ath Madrid	18	13	4	1	+24	+23.3	43
4	Ath Bilbao	18	11	6	1	+22	+14.3	39
5	Celta	18	11	3	4	+12	+7.5	36
6	Betis	18	9	6	3	+11	+14.2	33
7	Osasuna	18	9	6	3	+8	+2.2	33
8	Villarreal	18	8	7	3	+14	+12.6	31
9	Valencia	18	9	4	5	+7	+5.7	31
10	Espanol	18	7	6	5	+1	-4.9	27
11	Mallorca	18	7	6	5	+0	-1.1	27
12	Vallecano	18	6	7	5	-2	+5.1	25
13	Girona	18	7	3	8	+1	+5.0	24
14	Sociedad	18	7	3	8	-1	+5.8	24
15	Sevilla	18	6	6	6	-4	+1.5	24
16	Alaves	18	6	5	7	-3	+1.4	23
17	Leganes	18	6	4	8	-7	-9.8	22
18	Getafe	18	4	7	7	-3	+2.9	19
19	Las Palmas	18	4	5	9	-7	-7.2	17
20	Valladolid	18	3	4	11	-20	-10.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	13	3	2	+28	+10.8	42
2	Villarreal	18	10	3	5	+3	+8.5	33
3	Real Madrid	18	9	5	4	+12	+2.5	32
4	Ath Bilbao	18	7	7	4	+5	+2.0	28
5	Ath Madrid	18	7	6	5	+7	+2.7	27
6	Betis	18	7	5	6	-1	-5.4	26
7	Vallecano	18	6	5	7	-3	-8.8	23
8	Getafe	18	6	2	10	-2	-10.9	20
9	Mallorca	18	6	2	10	-8	-4.8	20
10	Sociedad	18	5	4	9	-9	-4.6	19
11	Sevilla	18	4	5	9	-5	-5.7	17
12	Girona	18	4	5	9	-12	-9.8	17
13	Celta	18	4	4	10	-10	+2.1	16
14	Alaves	18	3	6	9	-8	-4.6	15
15	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-11	-22.7	15
16	Osasuna	18	2	9	7	-14	-10.8	15
17	Valencia	18	2	8	8	-16	-13.2	14
18	Espanol	18	3	3	12	-12	-16.2	12
19	Leganes	18	1	9	8	-14	-17.4	12
20	Valladolid	18	1	0	17	-40	-21.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.