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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Muñiz

Valencia

U U S S T

0–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 41%

31%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

47%

36%

Both score Ø 56%

58%

53%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,4

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,48 xG 1,37

56% Possession 44%

6 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 11. · Ath Bilbao 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	36	27	4	5	+61	+45.4	85
2	Real Madrid	36	24	6	6	+36	+28.4	78
3	Ath Madrid	36	20	10	6	+31	+26.0	70
4	Ath Bilbao	36	18	13	5	+27	+16.3	67
5	Villarreal	36	18	10	8	+17	+21.1	64
6	Betis	36	16	11	9	+10	+8.8	59
7	Celta	36	15	7	14	+2	+9.6	52
8	Vallecano	36	12	12	12	-5	-3.7	48
9	Osasuna	36	11	15	10	-6	-8.6	48
10	Mallorca	36	13	8	15	-8	-5.9	47
11	Valencia	36	11	12	13	-9	-7.5	45
12	Sociedad	36	12	7	17	-10	+1.2	43
13	Sevilla	36	10	11	15	-9	-4.2	41
14	Girona	36	11	8	17	-11	-4.8	41
15	Getafe	36	10	9	17	-5	-8.0	39
16	Espanol	36	10	9	17	-11	-21.2	39
17	Alaves	36	9	11	16	-11	-3.2	38
18	Leganes	36	7	13	16	-21	-27.2	34
19	Las Palmas	36	8	8	20	-18	-29.9	32
20	Valladolid	36	4	4	28	-60	-32.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	15	1	2	+24	+25.9	46
2	Barcelona	18	14	1	3	+33	+34.7	43
3	Ath Madrid	18	13	4	1	+24	+23.3	43
4	Ath Bilbao	18	11	6	1	+22	+14.3	39
5	Celta	18	11	3	4	+12	+7.5	36
6	Betis	18	9	6	3	+11	+14.2	33
7	Osasuna	18	9	6	3	+8	+2.2	33
8	Villarreal	18	8	7	3	+14	+12.6	31
9	Valencia	18	9	4	5	+7	+5.7	31
10	Espanol	18	7	6	5	+1	-4.9	27
11	Mallorca	18	7	6	5	+0	-1.1	27
12	Vallecano	18	6	7	5	-2	+5.1	25
13	Girona	18	7	3	8	+1	+5.0	24
14	Sociedad	18	7	3	8	-1	+5.8	24
15	Sevilla	18	6	6	6	-4	+1.5	24
16	Alaves	18	6	5	7	-3	+1.4	23
17	Leganes	18	6	4	8	-7	-9.8	22
18	Getafe	18	4	7	7	-3	+2.9	19
19	Las Palmas	18	4	5	9	-7	-7.2	17
20	Valladolid	18	3	4	11	-20	-10.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	13	3	2	+28	+10.8	42
2	Villarreal	18	10	3	5	+3	+8.5	33
3	Real Madrid	18	9	5	4	+12	+2.5	32
4	Ath Bilbao	18	7	7	4	+5	+2.0	28
5	Ath Madrid	18	7	6	5	+7	+2.7	27
6	Betis	18	7	5	6	-1	-5.4	26
7	Vallecano	18	6	5	7	-3	-8.8	23
8	Getafe	18	6	2	10	-2	-10.9	20
9	Mallorca	18	6	2	10	-8	-4.8	20
10	Sociedad	18	5	4	9	-9	-4.6	19
11	Sevilla	18	4	5	9	-5	-5.7	17
12	Girona	18	4	5	9	-12	-9.8	17
13	Celta	18	4	4	10	-10	+2.1	16
14	Alaves	18	3	6	9	-8	-4.6	15
15	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-11	-22.7	15
16	Osasuna	18	2	9	7	-14	-10.8	15
17	Valencia	18	2	8	8	-16	-13.2	14
18	Espanol	18	3	3	12	-12	-16.2	12
19	Leganes	18	1	9	8	-14	-17.4	12
20	Valladolid	18	1	0	17	-40	-21.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.