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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Quintero

Villarreal

U S U T S

4–2

Full-time

Osasuna

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Osasuna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 38%

45%

30%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

64%

48%

Both score Ø 67%

70%

64%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,27 xG 1,26

44% Possession 56%

15 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 8

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Osasuna 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	24	4	5	+57	+43.2	76
2	Real Madrid	33	22	6	5	+35	+27.6	72
3	Ath Madrid	34	19	10	5	+29	+24.3	67
4	Ath Bilbao	33	16	12	5	+24	+16.2	60
5	Villarreal	33	15	10	8	+11	+17.3	55
6	Betis	33	15	9	9	+9	+10.8	54
7	Celta	33	13	7	13	+1	+12.1	46
8	Osasuna	33	10	14	9	-6	-8.7	44
9	Vallecano	34	11	11	12	-6	-4.3	44
10	Mallorca	33	12	8	13	-7	-2.1	44
11	Sociedad	33	12	6	15	-5	+0.7	42
12	Getafe	34	10	9	15	+0	-5.4	39
13	Espanol	33	10	9	14	-7	-21.8	39
14	Valencia	33	9	12	12	-12	-8.1	39
15	Sevilla	33	9	10	14	-9	-8.2	37
16	Alaves	34	8	11	15	-11	-4.0	35
17	Girona	33	9	8	16	-12	-4.4	35
18	Las Palmas	33	8	8	17	-15	-29.1	32
19	Leganes	33	6	12	15	-19	-25.0	30
20	Valladolid	33	4	4	25	-57	-31.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+32	+33.1	40
2	Real Madrid	16	13	1	2	+22	+23.5	40
3	Ath Madrid	17	12	4	1	+20	+22.5	40
4	Ath Bilbao	17	10	6	1	+21	+13.9	36
5	Celta	17	10	3	4	+11	+9.0	33
6	Betis	17	9	5	3	+11	+16.0	32
7	Osasuna	17	8	6	3	+6	+3.0	30
8	Valencia	17	8	4	5	+4	+3.5	28
9	Espanol	16	7	6	3	+4	-5.9	27
10	Villarreal	16	6	7	3	+9	+10.7	25
11	Mallorca	17	6	6	5	-1	-0.4	24
12	Vallecano	17	6	6	5	-2	+5.1	24
13	Sociedad	16	7	2	7	+0	+4.4	23
14	Girona	16	6	3	7	+1	+5.8	21
15	Alaves	17	5	5	7	-4	+0.2	20
16	Sevilla	16	5	5	6	-5	-0.8	20
17	Getafe	17	4	7	6	-1	+3.3	19
18	Leganes	17	5	4	8	-8	-10.1	19
19	Las Palmas	16	4	5	7	-5	-7.0	17
20	Valladolid	16	3	4	9	-18	-8.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	3	2	+25	+10.1	36
2	Real Madrid	17	9	5	3	+13	+4.0	32
3	Villarreal	17	9	3	5	+2	+6.6	30
4	Ath Madrid	17	7	6	4	+9	+1.9	27
5	Ath Bilbao	16	6	6	4	+3	+2.3	24
6	Betis	16	6	4	6	-2	-5.2	22
7	Getafe	17	6	2	9	+1	-8.8	20
8	Vallecano	17	5	5	7	-4	-9.4	20
9	Mallorca	16	6	2	8	-6	-1.7	20
10	Sociedad	17	5	4	8	-5	-3.7	19
11	Sevilla	17	4	5	8	-4	-7.3	17
12	Alaves	17	3	6	8	-7	-4.2	15
13	Las Palmas	17	4	3	10	-10	-22.1	15
14	Osasuna	16	2	8	6	-12	-11.6	14
15	Girona	17	3	5	9	-13	-10.3	14
16	Celta	16	3	4	9	-10	+3.0	13
17	Espanol	17	3	3	11	-11	-15.9	12
18	Leganes	16	1	8	7	-11	-14.8	11
19	Valencia	16	1	8	7	-16	-11.7	11
20	Valladolid	17	1	0	16	-39	-22.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.