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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola

Celta

S U S T T

3–0

Full-time

Villarreal

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 32/31 matches

Win Ø 42%

38%

45%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

59%

65%

Both score Ø 72%

69%

74%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,09 xG 0,39

61% Possession 39%

21 Shots 4

9 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Celta 8. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	24	4	5	+57	+43.2	76
2	Real Madrid	32	21	6	5	+34	+28.4	69
3	Ath Madrid	32	18	9	5	+26	+22.5	63
4	Ath Bilbao	32	15	12	5	+23	+15.2	57
5	Villarreal	31	14	10	7	+13	+19.5	52
6	Betis	32	14	9	9	+5	+9.8	51
7	Mallorca	33	12	8	13	-7	-2.1	44
8	Celta	32	12	7	13	-2	+9.4	43
9	Sociedad	32	12	6	14	-4	+0.4	42
10	Vallecano	32	10	11	11	-4	-3.0	41
11	Osasuna	32	9	14	9	-7	-8.3	41
12	Getafe	32	10	9	13	+2	-5.7	39
13	Espanol	32	10	9	13	-6	-21.2	39
14	Valencia	33	9	12	12	-12	-8.1	39
15	Sevilla	32	9	10	13	-8	-8.6	37
16	Girona	32	9	7	16	-12	-4.6	34
17	Las Palmas	32	8	8	16	-14	-28.1	32
18	Alaves	32	7	10	15	-12	-3.7	31
19	Leganes	32	6	11	15	-19	-24.8	29
20	Valladolid	32	4	4	24	-53	-30.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+32	+33.1	40
2	Real Madrid	16	13	1	2	+22	+23.5	40
3	Ath Madrid	16	11	4	1	+17	+20.7	37
4	Ath Bilbao	16	9	6	1	+20	+12.9	33
5	Celta	16	9	3	4	+8	+6.4	30
6	Betis	16	8	5	3	+7	+15.0	29
7	Valencia	17	8	4	5	+4	+3.5	28
8	Osasuna	16	7	6	3	+5	+3.4	27
9	Espanol	16	7	6	3	+4	-5.9	27
10	Mallorca	17	6	6	5	-1	-0.4	24
11	Sociedad	16	7	2	7	+0	+4.4	23
12	Villarreal	15	5	7	3	+8	+10.2	22
13	Girona	16	6	3	7	+1	+5.8	21
14	Vallecano	16	5	6	5	-3	+4.5	21
15	Sevilla	16	5	5	6	-5	-0.8	20
16	Getafe	16	4	7	5	+0	+2.5	19
17	Leganes	16	5	3	8	-8	-9.9	18
18	Las Palmas	16	4	5	7	-5	-7.0	17
19	Alaves	15	4	4	7	-5	+0.5	16
20	Valladolid	16	3	4	9	-18	-8.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	3	2	+25	+10.1	36
2	Villarreal	16	9	3	4	+5	+9.3	30
3	Real Madrid	16	8	5	3	+12	+4.9	29
4	Ath Madrid	16	7	5	4	+9	+1.9	26
5	Ath Bilbao	16	6	6	4	+3	+2.3	24
6	Betis	16	6	4	6	-2	-5.2	22
7	Getafe	16	6	2	8	+2	-8.2	20
8	Vallecano	16	5	5	6	-1	-7.6	20
9	Mallorca	16	6	2	8	-6	-1.7	20
10	Sociedad	16	5	4	7	-4	-4.0	19
11	Sevilla	16	4	5	7	-3	-7.8	17
12	Alaves	17	3	6	8	-7	-4.2	15
13	Las Palmas	16	4	3	9	-9	-21.0	15
14	Osasuna	16	2	8	6	-12	-11.6	14
15	Celta	16	3	4	9	-10	+3.0	13
16	Girona	16	3	4	9	-13	-10.5	13
17	Espanol	16	3	3	10	-10	-15.4	12
18	Leganes	16	1	8	7	-11	-14.8	11
19	Valencia	16	1	8	7	-16	-11.7	11
20	Valladolid	16	1	0	15	-35	-21.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.