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Ekstraklasa

Referee: M Piszczelok

Motor Lublin

T S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Zaglebie

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Motor Lublin Zaglebie

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 35%

38%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

56%

47%

Both score Ø 53%

56%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,26 xG 1,26

46% Possession 54%

17 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Motor Lublin 11. · Zaglebie 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	32	21	3	8	+36	+12.1	66
2	Rakow	33	19	9	5	+27	+11.7	66
3	Jagiellonia	33	17	9	7	+14	+4.1	60
4	Pogon Szczecin	33	17	6	10	+19	+17.4	57
5	Legia	32	15	8	9	+17	+14.6	53
6	Gornik Zabrze	33	13	7	13	+4	+4.9	46
7	Cracovia	32	12	9	11	+2	-5.6	45
8	Piast Gliwice	33	11	12	10	+2	-1.4	45
9	GKS Katowice	32	13	6	13	+1	-2.3	45
10	Korona Kielce	33	11	11	11	-8	-2.1	44
11	Motor Lublin	32	12	7	13	-13	-3.9	43
12	Radomiak Radom	33	11	8	14	-3	-0.8	41
13	Widzew Lodz	32	10	7	15	-12	-7.0	37
14	Lechia Gdansk	33	10	7	16	-14	-16.3	37
15	Zaglebie	32	10	6	16	-16	-6.8	36
16	Stal Mielec	33	7	9	17	-17	+0.4	30
17	Slask Wroclaw	33	6	11	16	-15	-0.7	29
18	Puszcza	32	6	9	17	-24	-18.2	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	16	14	0	2	+33	+11.4	42
2	Pogon Szczecin	17	13	2	2	+22	+17.0	41
3	Jagiellonia	16	9	5	2	+14	+4.7	32
4	Legia	16	9	3	4	+14	+10.9	30
5	Rakow	16	9	3	4	+12	+6.5	30
6	GKS Katowice	16	8	4	4	+7	-4.1	28
7	Gornik Zabrze	16	8	3	5	+9	+5.8	27
8	Korona Kielce	17	8	3	6	+1	+4.3	27
9	Radomiak Radom	16	6	5	5	+6	+4.6	23
10	Piast Gliwice	17	5	8	4	+0	-0.2	23
11	Widzew Lodz	16	7	2	7	-3	-0.4	23
12	Lechia Gdansk	16	7	2	7	-4	-6.2	23
13	Motor Lublin	16	6	4	6	-1	-1.9	22
14	Stal Mielec	17	5	6	6	-3	+4.8	21
15	Zaglebie	16	6	3	7	-4	-4.0	21
16	Slask Wroclaw	17	4	7	6	-1	-1.3	19
17	Cracovia	16	4	6	6	-2	-1.3	18
18	Puszcza	16	4	6	6	-3	-3.6	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	17	10	6	1	+15	+5.2	36
2	Jagiellonia	17	8	4	5	+0	-0.7	28
3	Cracovia	16	8	3	5	+4	-4.4	27
4	Lech Poznan	16	7	3	6	+3	+0.7	24
5	Legia	16	6	5	5	+3	+3.7	23
6	Piast Gliwice	16	6	4	6	+2	-1.2	22
7	Motor Lublin	16	6	3	7	-12	-1.9	21
8	Gornik Zabrze	17	5	4	8	-5	-1.0	19
9	Radomiak Radom	17	5	3	9	-9	-5.4	18
10	GKS Katowice	16	5	2	9	-6	+1.7	17
11	Korona Kielce	16	3	8	5	-9	-6.4	17
12	Pogon Szczecin	16	4	4	8	-3	+0.3	16
13	Zaglebie	16	4	3	9	-12	-2.8	15
14	Widzew Lodz	16	3	5	8	-9	-6.6	14
15	Lechia Gdansk	17	3	5	9	-10	-10.1	14
16	Slask Wroclaw	16	2	4	10	-14	+0.6	10
17	Stal Mielec	16	2	3	11	-14	-4.3	9
18	Puszcza	16	2	3	11	-21	-14.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.