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Eredivisie
Referee: D Makkelie
Ajax
S T U T U
2–0
Full-time
Twente
U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Twente
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 33/31 matches
Win Ø 58%
70%
45%
Points per game
2,3
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
58%
58%
Both score Ø 58%
48%
68%
Average goals
2,9
3,4
Scored
2,0
1,9
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,74 xG 0,79
53% Possession 47%
11 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 6
4 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 17
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 2. · Twente 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 33 24 4 5 +62 +47.2 76
2 Ajax 33 23 6 4 +33 +31.7 75
3 Feyenoord 33 20 8 5 +40 +27.3 68
4 Utrecht 33 18 9 6 +17 +5.4 63
5 Twente 31 14 9 8 +14 +13.1 51
6 Go Ahead Eagles 33 14 9 10 +4 +7.5 51
7 AZ Alkmaar 31 14 8 9 +12 +14.7 50
8 Nijmegen 32 11 7 14 +6 +1.7 40
9 Heerenveen 32 11 7 14 -9 -1.9 40
10 For Sittard 33 11 7 15 -17 -8.1 40
11 Sparta Rotterdam 33 9 12 12 -2 -1.6 39
12 Groningen 33 10 9 14 -11 -8.2 39
13 Zwolle 33 9 11 13 -10 -19.7 38
14 Heracles 33 9 11 13 -20 -17.6 38
15 NAC Breda 33 8 8 17 -24 -18.4 32
16 Willem II 33 6 7 20 -22 -30.5 25
17 Waalwijk 33 5 7 21 -32 -25.8 22
18 Almere City 33 4 9 20 -41 -16.5 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax Twente
1–0 J. Henderson
Y. Regeer
28′
40′
🟨 Sem Steijn
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 A. Van Hoorenbeeck
↦ M. Hilgers
W. Weghorst 🔁
↦ B. Brobbey
55′
J. Mokio 🔁
↦ Lucas Rosa
55′
Wout Weghorst ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
59′
64′
🔁 A. Verschueren
↦ M. Sadílek
M. Godts 🔁
↦ O. Wijndal
66′
68′
🟨 Arno Verschueren
B. Traoré 🔁
↦ S. Berghuis
76′
D. Janse 🔁
↦ Y. Regeer
76′
76′
🔁 S. Ltaief
↦ Y. Taha
77′
🔁 D. Rots
↦ R. van Wolfswinkel
82′
🔁 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
↦ B. Kuipers
2–0 W. Weghorst
B. Traoré
90′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
22 R. Pasveer G
2 Lucas Rosa D
37 J. Šutalo D
4 J. Hato D
5 O. Wijndal D
18 D. Klaassen M
6 J. Henderson M
44 Y. Regeer M
23 S. Berghuis F
9 B. Brobbey F
8 K. Taylor F
Bench (12)
25 W. Weghorst
31 J. Mokio
11 M. Godts
20 B. Traoré
36 D. Janse
16 Matheus
29 C. Rasmussen
24 D. Rugani
13 A. Kaplan
12 J. Gorter
28 K. Fitz-Jim
17 O. Edvardsen

Coach: F. Farioli

Twente

4-2-3-1
22 P. Tytoń G
28 B. van Rooij D
2 M. Hilgers D
38 M. Bruns D
5 B. Kuipers D
4 M. Kjølø M
23 M. Sadílek M
19 Y. Taha M
14 S. Steijn M
18 M. Vlap M
9 R. van Wolfswinkel F
Bench (12)
17 A. Van Hoorenbeeck
32 A. Verschueren
30 S. Ltaief
11 D. Rots
25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
8 T. Booth
21 S. Karssies
41 G. Besselink
29 H. Kuster
3 G. Lagerbielke
47 G. Alders
31 Y. Gerritsen

Coach: J. Oosting

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,44
U
5,05
B
5,87
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,39
U2,5 ✓
2,81
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.