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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Inter
T T T U S
4–3
Full-time
Barcelona
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,7
4,3
Scored
1,0
2,3
Conceded
1,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 69%
69%
69%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
46%
92%
Both score Ø 50%
31%
69%
Average goals
2,3
4,6
Scored
1,7
3,1
Conceded
0,6
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,28 xG 2,81
29% Possession 71%
13 Shots 22
7 Shots on target 10
3 Blocked shots 2
7 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 7
9 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 10
5 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

30. Apr -25 Barcelona – Inter 3–3 12. Oct -22 Barcelona – Inter 3–3 4. Oct -22 Inter – Barcelona 1–0

Match report

Inter Barcelona
-5′
🟨 Pau Víctor
1–0 L. Martínez ⚽
D. Dumfries
21′
Hakan Çalhanoğlu 🟨
36′
Lautaro Martínez ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
43′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 H. Çalhanoğlu ⚽
46′
51′
🟨 Iñigo Martínez
54′
⚽ Eric García 2–1
Gerard Martín
Carlos Augusto 🔁
↦ F. Dimarco
55′
60′
⚽ Dani Olmo 2–2
Gerard Martín
Henrikh Mkhitaryan 🟨
68′
69′
ℹ️ Lamine Yamal
VAR: Penalty cancelled
M. Darmian 🔁
↦ Y. Bisseck
71′
M. Taremi 🔁
↦ L. Martínez
71′
76′
🔁 R. Araujo
↦ Iñigo Martínez
P. Zieliński 🔁
↦ H. Çalhanoğlu
79′
D. Frattesi 🔁
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
79′
83′
🔁 Fermín López
↦ Dani Olmo
87′
⚽ Raphinha 2–3
91′
🔁 R. Lewandowski
↦ Ferran Torres
Carlos Augusto 🟨
91′
3–3 F. Acerbi ⚽
D. Dumfries
93′
Francesco Acerbi 🟨
94′
98′
🔁 Héctor Fort
↦ Eric García
4–3 D. Frattesi ⚽
M. Taremi
99′
105′
🔁 Gavi
↦ Pau Cubarsí
105′
🔁 Pau Víctor
↦ Pedri
S. de Vrij 🔁
↦ D. Dumfries
108′
Alessandro Bastoni 🟨
118′
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2
1 Y. Sommer G
31 Y. Bisseck D
15 F. Acerbi D
95 A. Bastoni D
2 D. Dumfries M
23 N. Barella M
20 H. Çalhanoğlu M
22 H. Mkhitaryan M
32 F. Dimarco M
10 L. Martínez F
9 M. Thuram F
Bench (12)
30 Carlos Augusto
36 M. Darmian
99 M. Taremi
7 P. Zieliński
16 D. Frattesi
6 S. de Vrij
56 G. Re Cecconi
8 M. Arnautović
21 K. Asllani
59 N. Zalewski
13 Josep Martínez
12 R. Di Gennaro

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
25 W. Szczęsny G
24 Eric García D
2 Pau Cubarsí D
5 Iñigo Martínez D
35 Gerard Martín D
21 F. de Jong M
8 Pedri M
19 Lamine Yamal M
20 Dani Olmo M
11 Raphinha M
7 Ferran Torres F
Bench (12)
4 R. Araujo
16 Fermín López
9 R. Lewandowski
32 Héctor Fort
6 Gavi
18 Pau Víctor
15 A. Christensen
10 Ansu Fati
13 Iñaki Peña
45 N. Darvich
44 Landry Farré
26 Ander Astralaga

Coach: H. Flick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.