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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Valencia

T T T U T

2–0

Full-time

Girona

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Girona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

0,6

1,6

Conceded

2,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,42 xG 0,37

32% Possession 68%

7 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 20. · Girona 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+13	+7.9	15
2	Ath Madrid	5	3	2	0	+7	+7.3	11
3	Real Madrid	5	3	2	0	+7	+6.7	11
4	Villarreal	5	3	2	0	+3	+1.5	11
5	Alaves	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.6	10
6	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+2	+0.0	10
7	Osasuna	6	3	1	2	-3	-2.7	10
8	Celta	5	3	0	2	+3	+0.8	9
9	Betis	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.5	8
10	Mallorca	6	2	2	2	+0	+0.4	8
11	Vallecano	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.2	7
12	Girona	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.4	7
13	Espanol	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.6	7
14	Sevilla	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.7	5
15	Sociedad	7	1	2	4	-4	-3.1	5
16	Leganes	6	1	2	3	-4	-4.0	5
17	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	-11	-6.0	5
18	Getafe	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.4	3
19	Las Palmas	6	0	2	4	-5	-6.7	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-7	-6.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.9	10
2	Celta	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.0	9
3	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	+5.5	7
4	Betis	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.1	7
5	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
6	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.2	6
7	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
8	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
9	Valladolid	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.5	5
10	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
11	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
12	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
13	Girona	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
14	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.4	3
15	Leganes	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
16	Sevilla	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
17	Getafe	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.8	2
18	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.7	2
19	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
20	Sociedad	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.7	9
2	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
3	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.7	6
4	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
5	Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.4	5
6	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
7	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
8	Girona	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.6	4
9	Mallorca	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.7	3
10	Alaves	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.9	3
11	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
12	Leganes	3	0	2	1	-2	-3.6	2
13	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
14	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
15	Betis	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.7	1
16	Celta	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.2	0
17	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.9	0
18	Valencia	3	0	0	3	-6	-4.8	0
19	Osasuna	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.6	0
20	Valladolid	3	0	0	3	-12	-6.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.