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La Liga
Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano
Ath Bilbao
T S T T U
0–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,45 xG 0,99
46% Possession 54%
7 Shots 14
1 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 3
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 5
2 Offside 2
18 Free kicks against 6
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Jun -23 Real Madrid – Ath Bilbao 1–1 22. Jan -23 Ath Bilbao – Real Madrid 0–2 22. Dec -21 Ath Bilbao – Real Madrid 1–2 1. Dec -21 Real Madrid – Ath Bilbao 1–0 16. May -21 Ath Bilbao – Real Madrid 0–1

Match report

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid
Iker Muniain 🟨
4′
28′
⚽ Rodrygo 0–1
Daniel Carvajal
36′
⚽ Jude Bellingham 0–2
David Alaba
Half-time 0–2
Gorka Guruzeta 🔁
↦ Iker Muniain
46′
Oihan Sancet 🔁
↦ Unai Gómez
46′
Álex Berenguer 🔁
↦ Nico Williams
46′
50′
🔁 Antonio Rüdiger
↦ Éder Militão
Ander Herrera 🔁
↦ Mikel Vesga
64′
Daniel Vivian 🟨
67′
Imanol García de Albéniz 🔁
↦ Íñigo Lekue
71′
71′
🔁 Toni Kroos
↦ Eduardo Camavinga
76′
🟨 David Alaba
80′
🔁 Luka Modrić
↦ Vinícius Júnior
80′
🔁 Joselu
↦ Rodrygo
Iñaki Williams 🟨
87′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 Unai Simón G
18 Óscar de Marcos D
3 Daniel Vivian D
4 Aitor Paredes D
15 Íñigo Lekue D
16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta M
6 Mikel Vesga M
11 Nico Williams M
30 Unai Gómez M
10 Iker Muniain M
9 Iñaki Williams F
Bench (12)
7 Álex Berenguer
8 Oihan Sancet
12 Gorka Guruzeta
21 Ander Herrera
19 Imanol García de Albéniz
13 Julen Agirrezabala
23 Peru Nolaskoain Esnal
22 Raúl García
33 Beñat Prados
24 Javier Martón Ansó
29 Malcom Ares
20 Asier Villalibre

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Real Madrid

4-3-1-2
13 Andriy Lunin G
2 Daniel Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
4 David Alaba D
20 Fran García D
15 Federico Valverde M
18 Aurélien Tchouaméni M
12 Eduardo Camavinga M
5 Jude Bellingham M
7 Vinícius Júnior F
11 Rodrygo F
Bench (10)
22 Antonio Rüdiger
8 Toni Kroos
10 Luka Modrić
14 Joselu
31 Lucas Cañizares
30 Fran González
6 Nacho Fernández
17 Lucas Vázquez
16 Álvaro Odriozola
21 Brahim Díaz

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,40
🔒
U
3,52
🔒
B ✓
2,15
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
1,85
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,99
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jesus Gil Manzano · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.