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La Liga

Referee: Antonio Mateu

Ath Bilbao

S U S U T

0–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 48%

31%

64%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

42%

44%

Both score Ø 55%

56%

53%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%

8 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 9. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	36	24	8	4	+40	80
2	Real Madrid	36	23	9	4	+37	78
3	Barcelona	36	23	7	6	+47	76
4	Sevilla	36	23	5	8	+23	74
5	Sociedad	36	15	11	10	+17	56
6	Villarreal	36	14	13	9	+13	55
7	Betis	36	15	10	11	-2	55
8	Celta	36	13	11	12	-2	50
9	Ath Bilbao	36	11	13	12	+7	46
10	Granada	36	13	6	17	-16	45
11	Osasuna	36	11	11	14	-9	44
12	Cadiz	36	11	10	15	-20	43
13	Levante	36	9	13	14	-10	40
14	Valencia	36	9	12	15	-6	39
15	Alaves	36	8	11	17	-22	35
16	Getafe	36	8	10	18	-16	34
17	Huesca	36	7	12	17	-18	33
18	Valladolid	36	5	16	15	-19	31
19	Eibar	36	6	12	18	-19	30
20	Elche	36	6	12	18	-25	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	18	14	3	1	+29	45
2	Sevilla	18	13	1	4	+15	40
3	Real Madrid	18	12	3	3	+19	39
4	Barcelona	18	11	5	2	+25	38
5	Betis	18	9	5	4	+5	32
6	Ath Bilbao	18	8	6	4	+11	30
7	Sociedad	18	8	6	4	+10	30
8	Celta	18	9	3	6	+1	30
9	Granada	18	9	3	6	+0	30
10	Valencia	18	7	7	4	+8	28
11	Villarreal	18	7	6	5	+2	27
12	Osasuna	18	7	5	6	-1	26
13	Levante	18	5	8	5	-3	23
14	Getafe	18	5	6	7	+1	21
15	Huesca	18	5	6	7	-4	21
16	Alaves	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Elche	18	4	8	6	-7	20
18	Cadiz	18	5	5	8	-11	20
19	Valladolid	18	3	7	8	-10	16
20	Eibar	18	2	7	9	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	11	6	1	+18	39
2	Barcelona	18	12	2	4	+22	38
3	Ath Madrid	18	10	5	3	+11	35
4	Sevilla	18	10	4	4	+8	34
5	Villarreal	18	7	7	4	+11	28
6	Sociedad	18	7	5	6	+7	26
7	Betis	18	6	5	7	-7	23
8	Cadiz	18	6	5	7	-9	23
9	Celta	18	4	8	6	-3	20
10	Osasuna	18	4	6	8	-8	18
11	Levante	18	4	5	9	-7	17
12	Eibar	18	4	5	9	-11	17
13	Ath Bilbao	18	3	7	8	-4	16
14	Valladolid	18	2	9	7	-9	15
15	Granada	18	4	3	11	-16	15
16	Alaves	18	3	5	10	-16	14
17	Getafe	18	3	4	11	-17	13
18	Huesca	18	2	6	10	-14	12
19	Valencia	18	2	5	11	-14	11
20	Elche	18	2	4	12	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.