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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

Real Madrid

S T T S S

1–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 52%

65%

38%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

57%

46%

Both score Ø 49%

57%

41%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,76 xG 2,36

64% Possession 36%

9 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 4

8 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Ath Bilbao 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	37	28	4	5	+51	+18.0	88
2	Real Madrid	37	24	5	8	+39	+18.2	77
3	Ath Madrid	37	23	7	7	+37	+15.8	76
4	Sociedad	37	20	8	9	+15	+8.7	68
5	Villarreal	37	19	6	12	+19	+10.0	63
6	Betis	37	17	8	12	+5	+1.9	59
7	Ath Bilbao	37	14	8	15	+4	+5.4	50
8	Osasuna	37	14	8	15	-6	-13.2	50
9	Girona	37	13	10	14	+4	-7.1	49
10	Vallecano	37	13	10	14	-5	-3.3	49
11	Sevilla	37	13	10	14	-6	+6.8	49
12	Mallorca	37	13	8	16	-9	-9.4	47
13	Valencia	37	11	8	18	-3	+0.9	41
14	Getafe	37	10	11	16	-11	-2.6	41
15	Cadiz	37	10	11	16	-23	-4.6	41
16	Celta	37	10	10	17	-11	-4.1	40
17	Almeria	37	11	7	19	-16	-8.6	40
18	Valladolid	37	11	6	20	-30	-16.0	39
19	Espanol	37	8	12	17	-17	-7.9	36
20	Elche	37	5	9	23	-37	-8.9	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	15	3	1	+33	+14.7	48
2	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+28	+15.8	43
3	Ath Madrid	19	13	3	3	+26	+14.3	42
4	Villarreal	18	12	2	4	+18	+10.2	38
5	Sociedad	18	10	5	3	+9	+9.3	35
6	Girona	19	10	3	6	+9	+0.6	33
7	Almeria	19	10	3	6	+7	+2.3	33
8	Mallorca	18	9	5	4	+7	+0.9	32
9	Vallecano	19	9	5	5	+6	+1.2	32
10	Betis	18	9	4	5	+8	+2.2	31
11	Osasuna	18	10	1	7	+2	-1.9	31
12	Valencia	19	8	5	6	+8	+5.2	29
13	Ath Bilbao	19	8	3	8	+7	+2.0	27
14	Getafe	19	7	6	6	+1	+3.0	27
15	Valladolid	18	8	3	7	-4	-1.1	27
16	Cadiz	19	7	6	6	-4	+1.9	27
17	Sevilla	19	7	5	7	-1	+11.9	26
18	Celta	18	6	6	6	+4	+2.6	24
19	Espanol	18	4	6	8	-8	+3.5	18
20	Elche	18	3	5	10	-11	+2.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	13	1	4	+18	+3.2	40
2	Real Madrid	19	11	1	7	+11	+2.3	34
3	Ath Madrid	18	10	4	4	+11	+1.5	34
4	Sociedad	19	10	3	6	+6	-0.6	33
5	Betis	19	8	4	7	-3	-0.3	28
6	Villarreal	19	7	4	8	+1	-0.2	25
7	Ath Bilbao	18	6	5	7	-3	+3.4	23
8	Sevilla	18	6	5	7	-5	-5.2	23
9	Osasuna	19	4	7	8	-8	-11.3	19
10	Espanol	19	4	6	9	-9	-11.3	18
11	Vallecano	18	4	5	9	-11	-4.5	17
12	Girona	18	3	7	8	-5	-7.7	16
13	Celta	19	4	4	11	-15	-6.7	16
14	Mallorca	19	4	3	12	-16	-10.3	15
15	Getafe	18	3	5	10	-12	-5.6	14
16	Cadiz	18	3	5	10	-19	-6.4	14
17	Valencia	18	3	3	12	-11	-4.2	12
18	Valladolid	19	3	3	13	-26	-14.9	12
19	Elche	19	2	4	13	-26	-11.5	10
20	Almeria	18	1	4	13	-23	-10.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.