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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Liverpool

S U U S U

5–0

Full-time

Watford

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 58%

74%

41%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

52%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 5

10 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Watford 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	20	6	1	+44	66
2	Man City	27	21	2	4	+54	65
3	Tottenham	27	20	0	7	+28	60
4	Arsenal	28	17	5	6	+22	56
5	Man United	27	15	7	5	+17	52
6	Chelsea	26	15	5	6	+16	50
7	Watford	27	11	7	9	+4	40
8	Wolves	28	11	7	10	+0	40
9	Everton	28	10	6	12	+0	36
10	West Ham	27	10	6	11	-5	36
11	Leicester	28	10	5	13	-5	35
12	Bournemouth	28	10	4	14	-14	34
13	Newcastle	28	8	7	13	-8	31
14	Crystal Palace	27	8	6	13	-4	30
15	Burnley	28	8	6	14	-19	30
16	Brighton	27	7	6	14	-12	27
17	Southampton	28	6	9	13	-16	27
18	Cardiff	28	7	4	17	-30	25
19	Fulham	28	4	5	19	-37	17
20	Huddersfield	28	3	5	20	-35	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	13	0	1	+38	39
2	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+23	38
3	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+28	35
4	Chelsea	13	8	4	1	+17	28
5	Tottenham	13	9	0	4	+12	27
6	Man United	13	7	5	1	+9	26
7	Bournemouth	14	7	4	3	+8	25
8	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+1	21
9	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
10	Everton	14	6	3	5	+0	21
11	Watford	13	6	2	5	-1	20
12	Brighton	13	5	4	4	+1	19
13	Newcastle	15	6	1	8	-2	19
14	Leicester	14	5	2	7	-2	17
15	Burnley	13	5	2	6	-6	17
16	Cardiff	15	5	2	8	-15	17
17	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-4	15
18	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	15
19	Crystal Palace	13	3	4	6	-3	13
20	Huddersfield	15	2	2	11	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	14	11	0	3	+16	33
2	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+16	31
3	Man City	13	8	2	3	+16	26
4	Man United	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Chelsea	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Watford	14	5	5	4	+5	20
7	Wolves	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	Leicester	14	5	3	6	-3	18
10	Crystal Palace	14	5	2	7	-1	17
11	Everton	14	4	3	7	+0	15
12	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-6	15
13	Burnley	15	3	4	8	-13	13
14	Newcastle	13	2	6	5	-6	12
15	Southampton	14	3	3	8	-12	12
16	Bournemouth	14	3	0	11	-22	9
17	Brighton	14	2	2	10	-13	8
18	Cardiff	13	2	2	9	-15	8
19	Huddersfield	13	1	3	9	-20	6
20	Fulham	15	0	2	13	-28	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.