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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Liverpool

S S U S S

3–1

Full-time

Man City

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,7

3,0

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+2,3

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 82%

91%

73%

Points per game

2,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 82%

82%

Both score Ø 64%

82%

45%

Average goals

3,1

4,0

Scored

2,3

3,1

Conceded

0,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+2,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 13

3 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Man City 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	10	1	0	+16	31
2	Leicester	12	8	2	2	+21	26
3	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+10	26
4	Man City	11	8	1	2	+24	25
5	Sheffield United	12	4	5	3	+4	17
6	Arsenal	12	4	5	3	-1	17
7	Man United	12	4	4	4	+4	16
8	Wolves	12	3	7	2	+1	16
9	Bournemouth	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	Burnley	12	4	3	5	-1	15
11	Brighton	12	4	3	5	-2	15
12	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-6	15
13	Newcastle	12	4	3	5	-7	15
14	Tottenham	12	3	5	4	+1	14
15	Everton	12	4	2	6	-5	14
16	West Ham	12	3	4	5	-6	13
17	Aston Villa	12	3	2	7	-3	11
18	Watford	12	1	5	6	-15	8
19	Southampton	12	2	2	8	-18	8
20	Norwich	12	2	1	9	-17	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+9	15
3	Man City	6	4	1	1	+14	13
4	Burnley	6	4	0	2	+4	12
5	Arsenal	6	3	3	0	+3	12
6	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Man United	6	3	2	1	+6	11
8	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
10	Everton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
11	Sheffield United	6	3	0	3	+2	9
12	Bournemouth	6	2	3	1	+1	9
13	Newcastle	6	2	3	1	+1	9
14	Wolves	6	2	3	1	+0	9
15	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	+1	8
16	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	-1	8
17	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-3	7
18	Norwich	6	2	0	4	-6	6
19	Watford	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Southampton	6	0	1	5	-16	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+7	16
2	Chelsea	6	5	0	1	+6	15
3	Man City	5	4	0	1	+10	12
4	Leicester	6	3	1	2	+10	10
5	Sheffield United	6	1	5	0	+2	8
6	Wolves	6	1	4	1	+1	7
7	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	-1	7
8	Southampton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-5	7
10	West Ham	6	1	3	2	-3	6
11	Newcastle	6	2	0	4	-8	6
12	Man United	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	Arsenal	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Watford	6	1	2	3	-9	5
15	Everton	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Brighton	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-4	3
18	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-5	3
19	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-5	3
20	Norwich	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.