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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Liverpool

U S S S T

5–0

Full-time

Watford

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 45%

57%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

57%

Both score Ø 52%

53%

50%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 4

10 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 0

6 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 4. · Watford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	30	26	3	1	+65	81
2	Man United	30	20	5	5	+35	65
3	Tottenham	30	18	7	5	+34	61
4	Liverpool	30	17	9	4	+34	60
5	Chelsea	30	17	5	8	+25	56
6	Arsenal	30	14	6	10	+14	48
7	Burnley	30	11	10	9	+1	43
8	Leicester	30	10	10	10	+2	40
9	Everton	31	11	7	13	-13	40
10	Watford	30	10	6	14	-11	36
11	Bournemouth	31	9	9	13	-12	36
12	Brighton	30	8	10	12	-12	34
13	Newcastle	30	8	8	14	-10	32
14	Swansea	30	8	7	15	-17	31
15	Huddersfield	31	8	7	16	-27	31
16	Crystal Palace	31	7	9	15	-18	30
17	West Ham	30	7	9	14	-21	30
18	Southampton	30	5	13	12	-15	28
19	Stoke	31	6	9	16	-29	27
20	West Brom	31	3	11	17	-25	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	1	0	+41	43
2	Man United	15	12	2	1	+26	38
3	Arsenal	15	11	2	2	+22	35
4	Tottenham	15	10	4	1	+22	34
5	Liverpool	15	9	6	0	+23	33
6	Chelsea	15	10	2	3	+15	32
7	Everton	15	9	2	4	+7	29
8	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+0	24
9	Leicester	15	6	5	4	+4	23
10	Burnley	15	6	4	5	+0	22
11	Bournemouth	16	6	4	6	-3	22
12	Watford	15	6	4	5	-4	22
13	Swansea	15	6	2	7	-4	20
14	Huddersfield	16	5	5	6	-7	20
15	Newcastle	15	5	4	6	+0	19
16	West Ham	14	5	4	5	-4	19
17	Stoke	16	5	4	7	-8	19
18	Crystal Palace	15	4	5	6	-5	17
19	Southampton	16	3	7	6	-5	16
20	West Brom	15	2	7	6	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	12	2	1	+24	38
2	Tottenham	15	8	3	4	+12	27
3	Liverpool	15	8	3	4	+11	27
4	Man United	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+10	24
6	Burnley	15	5	6	4	+1	21
7	Leicester	15	4	5	6	-2	17
8	Watford	15	4	2	9	-7	14
9	Bournemouth	15	3	5	7	-9	14
10	Arsenal	15	3	4	8	-8	13
11	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-10	13
12	Crystal Palace	16	3	4	9	-13	13
13	Southampton	14	2	6	6	-10	12
14	Swansea	15	2	5	8	-13	11
15	West Ham	16	2	5	9	-17	11
16	Everton	16	2	5	9	-20	11
17	Huddersfield	15	3	2	10	-20	11
18	Brighton	15	2	4	9	-12	10
19	Stoke	15	1	5	9	-21	8
20	West Brom	16	1	4	11	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.