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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Ortiz

Almeria

U S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Barcelona

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

2,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 57%

27%

86%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

55%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

64%

23%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,96 xG 1,11

28% Possession 72%

7 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 19. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	22	19	2	1	+38	+4.7	59
2	Real Madrid	23	16	4	3	+29	+9.3	52
3	Sociedad	23	13	4	6	+9	+0.7	43
4	Ath Madrid	23	12	6	5	+14	+2.8	42
5	Betis	23	12	4	7	+7	+5.0	40
6	Vallecano	23	9	7	7	+4	+0.8	34
7	Ath Bilbao	23	9	5	9	+7	-0.5	32
8	Villarreal	22	9	4	9	+2	-0.8	31
9	Mallorca	23	9	4	10	-3	-3.7	31
10	Girona	23	8	6	9	+1	-0.6	30
11	Osasuna	22	8	6	8	-2	-4.6	30
12	Espanol	23	6	9	8	-5	+0.7	27
13	Celta	23	7	6	10	-8	+0.4	27
14	Sevilla	22	6	7	9	-6	+2.7	25
15	Cadiz	23	6	7	10	-17	-0.5	25
16	Valladolid	23	7	3	13	-17	-5.0	24
17	Valencia	23	6	5	12	+0	-3.0	23
18	Getafe	22	5	7	10	-9	-1.1	22
19	Almeria	22	6	4	12	-13	-0.5	22
20	Elche	23	1	6	16	-31	-6.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	9	2	0	+23	+3.0	29
2	Real Madrid	11	7	4	0	+15	+7.9	25
3	Girona	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.5	21
4	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.7	20
5	Betis	11	6	2	3	+6	+1.7	20
6	Mallorca	11	6	2	3	+4	+0.4	20
7	Villarreal	10	6	1	3	+6	+1.7	19
8	Almeria	11	6	1	4	+4	+1.0	19
9	Ath Madrid	11	5	3	3	+6	+2.8	18
10	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+4	-0.1	18
11	Sociedad	11	5	3	3	+1	+0.3	18
12	Osasuna	11	6	0	5	+1	-2.2	18
13	Valencia	12	5	2	5	+7	+0.6	17
14	Valladolid	11	5	2	4	+0	+1.0	17
15	Cadiz	12	4	5	3	-3	+2.1	17
16	Celta	12	4	4	4	+2	+1.7	16
17	Sevilla	11	4	3	4	+0	+6.1	15
18	Getafe	12	3	4	5	-3	-2.0	13
19	Espanol	12	3	4	5	-4	+2.5	13
20	Elche	12	1	3	8	-10	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	+15	+1.7	30
2	Real Madrid	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.4	27
3	Sociedad	12	8	1	3	+8	+0.4	25
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.0	24
5	Betis	12	6	2	4	+1	+3.3	20
6	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
7	Espanol	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.8	14
8	Ath Bilbao	11	3	3	5	-1	-1.2	12
9	Osasuna	11	2	6	3	-3	-2.4	12
10	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	-2.5	12
11	Mallorca	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.1	11
12	Celta	11	3	2	6	-10	-1.4	11
13	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.4	10
14	Girona	11	2	3	6	-5	-3.2	9
15	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.8	9
16	Cadiz	11	2	2	7	-14	-2.7	8
17	Valladolid	12	2	1	9	-17	-6.0	7
18	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-7	-3.6	6
19	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-1.5	3
20	Elche	11	0	3	8	-21	-6.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.