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La Liga

Referee: Carlos del Cerro

Valencia

T U T U T

1–4

Full-time

Barcelona

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 24/23 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

63%

48%

Both score Ø 70%

75%

65%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

22 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 12. · Barcelona 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	25	17	6	2	+31	57
2	Sevilla	25	14	9	2	+20	51
3	Betis	24	13	4	7	+16	43
4	Ath Madrid	25	12	6	7	+11	42
5	Villarreal	25	10	9	6	+18	39
6	Barcelona	23	10	9	4	+11	39
7	Sociedad	23	10	8	5	+3	38
8	Ath Bilbao	24	8	10	6	+4	34
9	Osasuna	25	8	8	9	-5	32
10	Celta	24	8	7	9	+3	31
11	Vallecano	24	9	4	11	-1	31
12	Valencia	24	7	9	8	-2	30
13	Espanol	25	7	8	10	-5	29
14	Elche	25	7	8	10	-6	29
15	Getafe	25	6	8	11	-4	26
16	Mallorca	23	6	8	9	-14	26
17	Granada	25	5	9	11	-13	24
18	Cadiz	25	3	11	11	-18	20
19	Alaves	25	5	5	15	-23	20
20	Levante	24	2	8	14	-26	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	9	4	0	+20	31
2	Sevilla	12	9	3	0	+16	30
3	Vallecano	12	8	2	2	+12	26
4	Villarreal	13	7	4	2	+16	25
5	Ath Madrid	12	7	3	2	+9	24
6	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+10	23
7	Espanol	13	6	4	3	+3	22
8	Sociedad	12	6	4	2	+3	22
9	Betis	12	6	2	4	+9	20
10	Getafe	12	6	2	4	+6	20
11	Elche	12	5	5	2	+3	20
12	Valencia	12	4	6	2	+5	18
13	Mallorca	12	4	6	2	+2	18
14	Ath Bilbao	11	5	2	4	+2	17
15	Granada	12	4	3	5	-4	15
16	Alaves	13	4	3	6	-5	15
17	Celta	12	4	2	6	+0	14
18	Osasuna	13	2	6	5	-9	12
19	Levante	12	1	6	5	-8	9
20	Cadiz	13	0	8	5	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	8	2	2	+11	26
2	Betis	12	7	2	3	+7	23
3	Sevilla	13	5	6	2	+4	21
4	Osasuna	12	6	2	4	+4	20
5	Ath Madrid	13	5	3	5	+2	18
6	Celta	12	4	5	3	+3	17
7	Ath Bilbao	13	3	8	2	+2	17
8	Barcelona	12	3	7	2	+1	16
9	Sociedad	11	4	4	3	+0	16
10	Villarreal	12	3	5	4	+2	14
11	Valencia	12	3	3	6	-7	12
12	Cadiz	12	3	3	6	-9	12
13	Elche	13	2	3	8	-9	9
14	Granada	13	1	6	6	-9	9
15	Mallorca	11	2	2	7	-16	8
16	Espanol	12	1	4	7	-8	7
17	Getafe	13	0	6	7	-10	6
18	Vallecano	12	1	2	9	-13	5
19	Levante	12	1	2	9	-18	5
20	Alaves	12	1	2	9	-18	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.