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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Chelsea

T T T T S

2–2

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

2,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/35 matches

Win Ø 28%

32%

23%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

41%

46%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

49%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,17 xG 1,30

76% Possession 24%

14 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 11. · Nott'm Forest 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	34	26	4	4	+58	+25.5	82
2	Arsenal	35	25	6	4	+44	+11.2	81
3	Newcastle	35	18	12	5	+32	+14.0	66
4	Man United	34	19	6	9	+8	+2.4	63
5	Liverpool	35	18	8	9	+25	+12.1	62
6	Tottenham	35	17	6	12	+7	-0.6	57
7	Brighton	33	16	7	10	+18	+19.9	55
8	Aston Villa	35	16	6	13	+3	-1.3	54
9	Brentford	35	12	14	9	+7	+2.1	50
10	Fulham	35	14	6	15	+1	-10.5	48
11	Chelsea	34	11	9	14	-5	+2.4	42
12	Crystal Palace	35	10	10	15	-11	-3.9	40
13	Wolves	35	11	7	17	-20	-9.7	40
14	Bournemouth	35	11	6	18	-30	-5.9	39
15	West Ham	35	10	7	18	-12	-3.8	37
16	Nott'm Forest	35	8	9	18	-31	-16.3	33
17	Everton	35	7	11	17	-21	-11.4	32
18	Leeds	36	7	10	19	-25	-12.2	31
19	Leicester	35	8	6	21	-15	-1.5	30
20	Southampton	35	6	6	23	-33	-12.4	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	18	16	1	1	+42	+16.1	49
2	Liverpool	18	13	4	1	+29	+13.1	43
3	Arsenal	17	13	3	1	+26	+10.7	42
4	Man United	16	12	3	1	+20	+8.3	39
5	Tottenham	18	12	1	5	+14	+3.3	37
6	Newcastle	17	10	5	2	+19	+10.5	35
7	Aston Villa	17	10	2	5	+10	+3.1	32
8	Brentford	17	8	7	2	+14	+4.4	31
9	Brighton	17	9	3	5	+14	+13.3	30
10	Wolves	18	9	2	7	-1	-0.4	29
11	Fulham	18	8	4	6	+2	-4.0	28
12	Nott'm Forest	18	7	6	5	+2	-8.2	27
13	West Ham	18	7	4	7	+0	+1.5	25
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	-4	-3.4	24
15	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+1	+4.0	23
16	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-7	-2.2	22
17	Leeds	18	5	7	6	-8	-2.3	22
18	Everton	17	5	3	9	-9	-2.1	18
19	Leicester	17	4	4	9	-2	-0.6	16
20	Southampton	17	2	4	11	-16	-5.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	12	3	3	+18	+0.5	39
2	Man City	16	10	3	3	+16	+9.3	33
3	Newcastle	18	8	7	3	+13	+3.5	31
4	Brighton	16	7	4	5	+4	+6.6	25
5	Man United	18	7	3	8	-12	-5.9	24
6	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	-7	-4.4	22
7	Fulham	17	6	2	9	-1	-6.5	20
8	Tottenham	17	5	5	7	-7	-4.0	20
9	Liverpool	17	5	4	8	-4	-0.9	19
10	Chelsea	17	5	4	8	-6	-1.6	19
11	Brentford	18	4	7	7	-7	-2.3	19
12	Bournemouth	17	5	2	10	-23	-3.7	17
13	Crystal Palace	18	4	4	10	-7	-0.5	16
14	Everton	18	2	8	8	-12	-9.3	14
15	Leicester	18	4	2	12	-13	-0.9	14
16	Southampton	18	4	2	12	-17	-7.3	14
17	West Ham	17	3	3	11	-12	-5.3	12
18	Wolves	17	2	5	10	-19	-9.3	11
19	Leeds	18	2	3	13	-17	-9.9	9
20	Nott'm Forest	17	1	3	13	-33	-8.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.