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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Valencia

S T T T U

4–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

This season — La Liga · 8/7 matches

Win Ø 48%

25%

71%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

63%

43%

Both score Ø 59%

75%

43%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

35% Possession 65%

7 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 16. · Real Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sociedad	9	6	2	1	+16	20
2	Villarreal	9	5	3	1	+4	18
3	Ath Madrid	7	5	2	0	+15	17
4	Real Madrid	7	5	1	1	+8	16
5	Granada	8	4	2	2	-2	14
6	Cadiz	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Betis	9	4	0	5	-5	12
8	Barcelona	7	3	2	2	+7	11
9	Getafe	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Elche	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Sevilla	7	3	1	3	+1	10
12	Osasuna	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Ath Bilbao	8	3	0	5	-2	9
14	Alaves	9	2	3	4	-3	9
15	Eibar	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Valencia	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Celta	9	1	4	4	-9	7
18	Levante	8	1	3	4	-5	6
19	Valladolid	9	1	3	5	-7	6
20	Huesca	9	0	6	3	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+11	10
3	Sociedad	5	3	1	1	+7	10
4	Granada	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Getafe	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Barcelona	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Real Madrid	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Betis	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Osasuna	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Valladolid	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Elche	4	1	2	1	-2	5
15	Alaves	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Huesca	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Celta	4	1	0	3	-7	3
18	Levante	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Cadiz	4	0	2	2	-4	2
20	Eibar	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cadiz	5	4	0	1	+2	12
2	Sociedad	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Eibar	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Elche	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Betis	5	2	0	3	-5	6
8	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	-2	5
9	Barcelona	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Sevilla	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Osasuna	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Celta	5	0	4	1	-2	4
14	Levante	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Granada	4	1	1	2	-6	4
16	Valencia	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Ath Bilbao	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Huesca	5	0	3	2	-6	3
19	Getafe	3	0	2	1	-3	2
20	Valladolid	4	0	1	3	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.